Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

Yes at 21% on 29 Oct 2026, up 8 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 21 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will achieve an initial public offering valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion. The market resolves based on the final offering price per share multiplied by the total fully diluted shares outstanding, as disclosed in the SEC final prospectus before the December 31, 2027 deadline.

Anticipation around major artificial intelligence company public offerings has intensified as rivals like Anthropic file for their own major IPOs targeting massive valuations. Financial platforms have begun introducing pre-IPO futures and CFD trading for both Anthropic and OpenAI ahead of expected US listings.

Key factors include the official SEC prospectus filing and fully diluted share counts at the time of the offering. If OpenAI fails to complete an IPO by the end of 2027, the market will resolve to its lowest bracket.

Sources: CFOtech Australia: OKX Australia launches OpenAI & Anthropic pre-IPO futures, Kalkine Media: ThinkMarkets Introduces 24/7 Pre-IPO CFD Trading on Anthropic and OpenAI Ahead of Expected US IPOs, www.tokenpost.com: ThinkMarkets Opens Anthropic and OpenAI Pre-IPO Valuation CFDs, 조선일보: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion Valuation in IPO, scanx.trade: ThinkMarkets launches 24/7 pre-IPO markets on Anthropic and OpenAI, Chosunbiz: Anthropic targets $2T IPO as seven OpenAI alums lock 50% control, pledge charity

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 24 Oct 2026

    OpenAI Valuation Nears $1.25 Trillion Ahead of Potential IPO

    12% → 20%Likely cause

    The chance of the market resolving to the $1.25T and $1.5T range rose after reports indicated that OpenAI is targeting a $1.25 trillion valuation in a funding round. Commentary noted that this valuation provides insight for investors watching for a potential future IPO.

    Sources: Dealroom: OpenAI nears $30B round at $1.25T valuation, led by Coatue and UAE investors, Pluang: OpenAI lowers fundraising valuation target to $1.25T amid investor concerns over AI spending., TechJuice: OpenAI Seeks $30 Billion at $1.25 Trillion Valuation Before IPO, The Motley Fool: OpenAI Nears $1.25 Trillion Valuation. What That Tells Investors Ahead of a Potential 2027 IPO.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 21 Oct 2026

    OpenAI Fundraising and Valuation News

    19% → 10%Likely cause

    The chance of OpenAI having an IPO valuation between $1.25T and $1.5T dropped after reports circulated regarding a massive new funding round. Articles noted that OpenAI was seeking a $30 billion funding round at a $1.4 trillion valuation ahead of an expected Anthropic IPO.

    Sources: International Business Times: OpenAI Is Racing To Raise $30 Billion Before Anthropic's IPO. Its Valuation Could Cross $1.4 Trillion., Tekedia: OpenAI Races to Raise $30 Billion at a $1.4 Trillion Valuation Ahead of Anthropic’s IPO, Analytics India Magazine: OpenAI Seeks $30 Bn Funding at $1.4 Tn Valuation Ahead of Anthropic IPO: Report

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Other markets in “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T”?

On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 21%, which means they saw about a 21 in 100 chance. That was up 8 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 24 Oct 2026, from 12% to 20%: OpenAI Valuation Nears $1.25 Trillion Ahead of Potential IPO. The chance of the market resolving to the $1.25T and $1.5T range rose after reports indicated that OpenAI is targeting a $1.25 trillion valuation in a funding round. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.