Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?
Yes at 13% on 29 Oct 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 8 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether OpenAI will achieve an implied equity valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2.0 trillion at its initial public offering. The resolution depends strictly on the final prospectus filed with the SEC, multiplying the final IPO offering price by the total fully diluted shares outstanding before December 31, 2027.
Recent market developments show heavy institutional and retail interest in major AI firms, with platforms introducing pre-IPO trading and CFDs for both OpenAI and competitor Anthropic. While Anthropic has recently filed for a blockbuster IPO targeting a $2 trillion valuation, discussions continue regarding pre-IPO pricing metrics for OpenAI ahead of expected U.S. offerings.
Sources: New York Post: Anthropic files for blockbuster IPO that could value AI giant at $2 trillion, Bybit: OpenAI (Tessera Pre-IPO) (TOPENAI) Price Prediction for 2026 to 2031, Kalkine Media: ThinkMarkets Introduces 24/7 Pre-IPO CFD Trading on Anthropic and OpenAI Ahead of Expected US IPOs, www.tokenpost.com: ThinkMarkets Opens Anthropic and OpenAI Pre-IPO Valuation CFDs, 조선일보: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion Valuation in IPO, scanx.trade: ThinkMarkets launches 24/7 pre-IPO markets on Anthropic and OpenAI, TradingView: ThinkMarkets and Pepperstone Open Bets on Anthropic’s Debut, Priced Two Different Ways, Chosunbiz: Anthropic targets $2T IPO as seven OpenAI alums lock 50% control, pledge charity, The Economic Times: Dean of valuation Aswath Damodaran pegs Anthropic's worth at $1.475 trillion ahead of mega IPO
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Anthropic Files For IPO
Anthropic filed its IPO documents targeting a two trillion dollar valuation, as reported on October 28, 2026. This competitor milestone shed light on market dynamics for AI company offerings.
Sources: The Himalayan Times: Anthropic files for potentially the biggest IPO ever as CEO warns of risk to humanity from AI, 조선일보: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion Valuation in IPO
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
OpenAI Valuation Reports Impact Prediction Market
The chance of OpenAI's IPO valuation falling between $1.75T and $2.0T increased following reports regarding its valuation and funding plans. Specifically, articles from sources like Channel Insider discussed OpenAI seeking a $1.4 trillion valuation as an IPO looms. Additional coverage from Tekedia and Analytics India Magazine also reported on these valuation figures around the time of the market move.
Sources: Tekedia: OpenAI Races to Raise $30 Billion at a $1.4 Trillion Valuation Ahead of Anthropic’s IPO, Analytics India Magazine: OpenAI Seeks $30 Bn Funding at $1.4 Tn Valuation Ahead of Anthropic IPO: Report, Channel Insider: OpenAI Seeks $1.4 Trillion Valuation as Anthropic IPO Looms
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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11 Oct 2026
No Matching News Found
No matching news was found to explain the shift in the prediction market during this timeframe. Consequently, the confidence level is set to none.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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8 Oct 2026
OpenAI Revenue Projections Drop Ahead of IPO
Reports emerged that OpenAI's annual revenue predictions are lower than previously projected ahead of its public offering. This lower revenue outlook may have influenced expectations regarding the company's final IPO valuation.
Sources: Cryptopolitan: OpenAI’s annual revenue predictions crash by $20B ahead of IPO, TechCrunch: OpenAI’s revenue is reportedly $20 billion less than previously projected, Financial Times: OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”
- $1.25T–$1.5T21%
- <$1T19%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 13%, which means they saw about a 13 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 20% to 12%: Anthropic Files For IPO. Anthropic filed its IPO documents targeting a two trillion dollar valuation, as reported on October 28, 2026. This competitor milestone shed light on market dynamics for AI company offerings. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.