Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

Yes at 19% on 29 Oct 2026, down 8 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 21 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will have an initial public offering valuation of less than $1 trillion. The market resolves based on the implied equity valuation calculated from the final IPO price and total fully diluted shares in the SEC prospectus, provided the IPO occurs by December 31, 2027.

Recent financial activity highlights growing market interest in artificial intelligence giants preparing for public offerings, with brokers introducing pre-IPO contracts for firms like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Sources: Kalkine Media: ThinkMarkets Introduces 24/7 Pre-IPO CFD Trading on Anthropic and OpenAI Ahead of Expected US IPOs, www.tokenpost.com: ThinkMarkets Opens Anthropic and OpenAI Pre-IPO Valuation CFDs, scanx.trade: ThinkMarkets launches 24/7 pre-IPO markets on Anthropic and OpenAI

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 28 Oct 2026

    Anthropic IPO Filing Boosts AI Valuation Expectations

    30% → 18%Likely cause

    Anthropic filed for a public offering and targeted a valuation of two trillion dollars, as reported around the time the prediction market shifted. This massive valuation target for a competitor likely influenced expectations for OpenAI's upcoming IPO, decreasing the chance that OpenAI will be valued under one trillion dollars.

    Sources: The Himalayan Times: Anthropic files for potentially the biggest IPO ever as CEO warns of risk to humanity from AI, 조선일보: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion Valuation in IPO

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 21 Oct 2026

    OpenAI's Valuation and IPO Reports

    23% → 31%Likely cause

    Reports surfaced that OpenAI was seeking a significant funding round at a valuation of $1.4 trillion ahead of an Anthropic IPO. This news coincided with a shift in the prediction market regarding whether OpenAI's IPO valuation would be less than $1 trillion.

    Sources: Tekedia: OpenAI Races to Raise $30 Billion at a $1.4 Trillion Valuation Ahead of Anthropic’s IPO, Analytics India Magazine: OpenAI Seeks $30 Bn Funding at $1.4 Tn Valuation Ahead of Anthropic IPO: Report, Channel Insider: OpenAI Seeks $1.4 Trillion Valuation as Anthropic IPO Looms

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Other markets in “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T”?

On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 19%, which means they saw about a 19 in 100 chance. That was down 8 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 30% to 18%: Anthropic IPO Filing Boosts AI Valuation Expectations. Anthropic filed for a public offering and targeted a valuation of two trillion dollars, as reported around the time the prediction market shifted. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, both held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.