Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes at 91% on 29 Oct 2026, up 58 pts over the previous 7 days. 12 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Otzma Yehudit will win 6 to 7 seats in the October 2026 Israeli Knesset elections. It resolves based on the official results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting, counting all seats won by Otzma Yehudit or any joint candidate list it contests the election with.
As of late October 2026, vote counting is underway following the October 27 election, with partial results showing no clear winner and Netanyahu's bloc projected to hold around 53 to 56 seats. Reports indicate that far-right parties, including those led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are projected to win a combined total of approximately 13 seats.
Key factors in the election include potential coalition dynamics, opposition figures like Eisenkot seeking to form a government, and reported pressure from international leaders regarding the makeup of Israel's next government.
Sources: Daily Times: Netanyahu’s bloc projected to win 56 seats as Israeli election count nears 50%, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, Daily Times: Netanyahu’s bloc projected to win 54 seats as Israeli vote count reaches 72%, The Jerusalem Post: Ben-Gvir, Smotrich's parties set to win combined 13 seats in 2026 Israeli election, The Times of Israel: With 90% of votes counted, Netanyahu bloc has 53 seats, Eisenkot’s 48; Arab parties surge to 19, The Jerusalem Post: Israel election results: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, Arab parties skyrocket, The Times of Israel: Netanyahu vows to stick with far-right partners as Eisenkot seeks path to ‘bring change’
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Otzma Projected to Win 13 Combined Seats
As votes were counted in the 2026 Israeli election, reports indicated that the parties of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich were set to win a combined 13 seats. This projection aligned with expectations for Otzma Yehudit to secure seats within the specified range.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Otzma Projected to Win 6-7 Seats in Israel Election
As vote counting progressed in the Israeli parliamentary elections, reports indicated that Itamar Ben-Gvir's party was set to secure a specific number of seats. Projections released around this time pointed to Ben-Gvir and Smotrich's parties achieving a combined total of 13 seats, aligning with the range bracket for Otzma.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Donald Trump wants Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich out of Israel's next government, sources say, The Jerusalem Post: Ben-Gvir, Smotrich's parties set to win combined 13 seats in 2026 Israeli election
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Otzma Projected to Win 6-7 Seats in Exit Polls
The price jumped after exit polls projected that Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party would win 6 to 7 Knesset seats. These projections directly correspond to the outcome tracked by the prediction market.
Sources: SSBCrack: Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party Projected to Win 6-7 Knesset Seats in Exit Polls
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Exit polls and election results shift Otzma market
The probability of Otzma winning six to seven seats increased after exit polls were released following the Israeli Knesset elections. Articles reported on the exit poll outcomes and the performance of various political blocs and leaders.
Sources: The Media Line: Israeli Exit Polls Show Netanyahu Bloc Short of Majority as Opposition, Arab Parties Gain Ground, Globes - Israel Business News: Exit polls show indecisive election result, Time Magazine: As Israelis Await Final Election Results, Netanyahu and Rival Face Tough Path to Power
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Israel Holds Tense Knesset Elections
Israelis went to the polls in a tense election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, with voters casting ballots for the 26th Knesset. Political parties competed for seats as the country held its legislative elections.
Sources: KSNT 27 News: The Latest: Israelis vote in a tense election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, The Times of Israel: Israel goes to the polls: A guide to the election and the battle to form a government, The Jerusalem Post: In Photos: Israel's political leaders cast their ballots in 26th Knesset election
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Otzma Knesset Seats Market Rises Amid Election Day
As Israelis voted in a tense election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, the chance of Otzma winning six to seven seats increased. News coverage highlighted the ongoing parliamentary elections and guides to the political parties contesting the vote.
Sources: KSNT 27 News: The Latest: Israelis vote in a tense election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, The Times of Israel: Israel goes to the polls: A guide to the election and the battle to form a government, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: A complete guide to Israel’s political parties
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Otzma Seat Prediction Drops Despite Far-Right Gains
The likelihood of Otzma winning 6 to 7 seats dropped from 42% to 28% as final polls predicted a political stalemate with no bloc reaching a 61-seat majority. Meanwhile, reports noted that Itamar Ben-Gvir was poised for election gains driven by young voters turning to the far right.
Sources: Reuters: Israel's Ben-Gvir poised for election gains as young voters turn to far right, All Israel News: Final round of polls predicts Israel will enter new political stalemate, no bloc close to 61-seat majority
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Right-Wing Feud Escalates Ahead of Israel Election
The price dropped as reports emerged regarding an escalating feud between Likud and Ben Gvir, with both sides accusing each other of harming the right. Meanwhile, Israeli soldiers began voting in the 2026 Knesset elections at over 850 locations.
Sources: Israel National News: Right-Wing feud escalates: Likud, Ben Gvir accuse each other of harming the right, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli soldiers begin voting in 2026 Knesset elections at over 850 locations
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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21 Oct 2026
Otzma Knesset Seat Projections Drop in Polls
Recent election polls show Gadi Eisenkot leading Benjamin Netanyahu as the 2026 Knesset elections approach. These shifting poll results and political dynamics likely contributed to the decline in market confidence.
Sources: The International Parliament Journal (IPJ): (IPJ Special Report) Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu’s Political Future, Eisenkot’s Challenge, Battle for 61 Seats, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: Gadi Eisenkot leading Benjamin Netanyahu, but neither has majority
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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21 Oct 2026
Otzma Seat Predictions Decline Amid Poll Results
The price for Otzma winning six to seven seats dropped following the release of new election polls. These polls indicated that Benjamin Netanyahu and his bloc were lagging or slipping in projected seat counts.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Israel election 2026: Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett gain as Benjamin Netanyahu slips, The Times of Israel: New election poll has pro-Netanyahu camp at 48 seats, thecradle.co: Polls show Netanyahu lagging behind 'Zionist opposition' despite Trump endorsement
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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20 Oct 2026
Otzma's Market Chances Drop Amid New Election Polls
The price for Otzma winning 6-7 seats decreased after new election polls were released. Recent surveys showed rival political figures and blocks gaining ground, while the pro-Netanyahu camp held 48 seats.
Sources: Belaaz: Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu in Two of Three TV Polls; Channel 14 Puts Likud at 30 Seats, The Times of Israel: New election poll has pro-Netanyahu camp at 48 seats
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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19 Oct 2026
Otzma Seats Market Rises After Ben Gvir Comments
The chance of Otzma winning 6 to 7 seats increased following reports about party standing and statements from Ben Gvir. Specifically, Ben Gvir stated that achieving double-digit seats is necessary to avoid being excluded from the next government.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: 'I love you': Ben-Gvir confronts Netanyahu over efforts to keep him out of government, The Times of Israel: Ben Gvir says Netanyahu has promised EU to exclude him from next government, Israel National News: Ben Gvir accuses Netanyahu, Likud fires back, Israel National News: Ben Gvir to Arutz Sheva: If we don't win double-digit seats, they'll leave us out
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 91%, which means they saw about a 91 in 100 chance. That was up 58 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 82% to 95%: Otzma Projected to Win 13 Combined Seats. As votes were counted in the 2026 Israeli election, reports indicated that the parties of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich were set to win a combined 13 seats. This projection aligned with expectations for Otzma Yehudit to secure seats within the specified range. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 12).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 10 big jumps old enough to check, 7 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).