Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes at 10% on 29 Oct 2026, down 24 pts over the previous 7 days. 9 big jumps since 17 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Otzma Yehudit party will win 8 to 9 seats in the Israeli Knesset following the October 2026 legislative elections. The market resolves based on official results from Israel’s Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting, including any seats won through joint candidate lists or merged parties.
As of October 29, 2026, with the vast majority of votes counted, the election has produced a political deadlock with no clear winner, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains an upper hand in potential coalition talks.
With roughly 92 percent of the votes counted, the bloc balance remains unchanged while leaders like Netanyahu vow to stick with their far-right partners and opposition figures seek paths to form a new government.
Sources: The New York Times: Israel Election Results Live Updates: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner, DW.com: Early Israeli election results point to deadlock, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Likud maintians lead with 89.8% of votes in, Foreign Policy: In Deadlocked Israeli Election, Netanyahu Has Upper Hand, The Times of Israel: Netanyahu vows to stick with far-right partners as Eisenkot seeks path to ‘bring change’, Haaretz: Israel Election 2026 With 92% of Votes Counted, Bloc Balance Remains Unchanged
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Otzma's Seats Prediction Market Drops After Election
As early election results and analysis emerged following the Israeli elections, the probability of Otzma winning 8-9 seats fell significantly. News outlets reported on the deadlocked election results, potential coalition-building processes, and projected seat distributions.
Sources: Foreign Policy: In Deadlocked Israeli Election, Netanyahu Has Upper Hand, The Conversation: Israel has voted, but what comes next? Dissecting a messy ballot and coalition-building process, Middle East Eye: Israeli president Herzog warns against repeating elections, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Where to next after Netanyahu neither won nor lost the Israeli election, The Times of Israel: Netanyahu vows to stick with far-right partners as Eisenkot seeks path to ‘bring change’, The Conversation: Israel election by the numbers: who might form the next government?, NewsCord: Isaac Herzog Urges Parties To Avoid Another Israel Election After Netanyahu, Eisenkot Deadlock, NewsCord: Arab Parties Win 19 Seats, Netanyahu and Eisenkot Scramble for Government in Israel Election, NewsCord: Israel Election: Netanyahu Bloc Projected 53 Seats as Eisenkot Bloc Leads 48: who 32 outlets blamed
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Otzma Knesset Seat Odds Drop Amid Election Results
The price for Otzma winning 8 to 9 seats dropped as early election results and vote counts were released. Partial results and news reports indicated an inconclusive election outcome with political deadlock as votes were counted.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Benjamin Netanyahu bloc holds lead, but coalition math remains elusive, DW.com: Israel election: Netanyahu-led bloc in slight lead with more than 80% of votes counted, BBC: Netanyahu's bloc leading Israel election but short of majority, partial results show, The Jerusalem Post: Israel election results: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, Arab parties skyrocket, DW.com: Early Israeli election results point to deadlock
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Otzma Yehudit Falls Short in Israel Election
The chance of Otzma winning 8 to 9 seats dropped following initial election results and exit polls. Reports indicated that Otzma Yehudit fell short of expectations as right-wing voters rallied behind Likud.
Sources: Ynetnews: Israel election results: Netanyahu bloc at 53 seats, Eisenkot bloc at 48 as nearly all votes counted, JFeed: Otzma Yehudit Falls Short of Expectations as Right-Wing Voters Rally Behind Likud
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Otzma Seat Prediction Drops Following Israeli Election Exit Polls
The market probability for Otzma winning 8 to 9 seats fell significantly after exit polls and projections were released following the Israeli legislative elections. Subsequent reports described the election results as a bad day and an election setback for Ben-Gvir. These initial outcomes contributed to the downward shift in the prediction market.
Sources: Israel National News: Ben Gvir celebrates election performance, warns against unity government with Eisenkot, Ynetnews: ‘A government of paralysis’: Ben-Gvir rejects unity with Eisenkot after election setback, Al Jazeera: A bad day for Ben-Gvir as he addresses his supporters
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Otzma Election Day Coverage
The chance of Otzma winning 8 to 9 seats rose as news outlets reported on the ongoing national election. Articles published during this period covered voters going to the polls and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, casting his vote.
Sources: WKMG: The Latest: No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls suggest, with Netanyahu’s fate uncertain, 巴士的報: The Latest: Israelis vote in a tense national election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, DC News Now: The Latest: Israelis vote in a tense election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, The Sunday Guardian: Israel Election Result 2026 Winner Prediction: Who Is Likely to Win the Election? Check Exit Polls, Key Candidates, Major Parties, Expected Results Date & More, The Lufkin Daily News: Israel's National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party votes with his wife Ayala, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Kiryat Arba, Anadolu Ajansı: Israel elections: What happens after polls close, Al Jazeera: Israel election results 2026: When will we know who won and what’s next?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Otzma Yehudit Poised for Election Gains
The chance of Otzma winning 8-9 seats increased as reporting highlighted strong momentum for the party. Reuters noted that Ben-Gvir was poised for election gains as young voters turned to the far right, while other outlets discussed the ongoing Israeli elections and the right-wing bloc.
Sources: Reuters: Israel's Ben-Gvir poised for election gains as young voters turn to far right, Columbus Jewish News: Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit to JNS: Israel needs a strong right-wing bloc
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
Otzma Seats Market Rises Amid New Election Polls
The likelihood of Otzma winning eight to nine seats increased as new election polls and reports were published ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections. Multiple news outlets released polling data and coverage regarding political dynamics and party standings just days before the vote.
Sources: Haaretz: Eisenkot bloc leads in new polls, still short of majority without Arab parties, The Times of Israel: Poll: No immediate bump for Netanyahu from Trump endorsement; 81% of opposition supporters intend to vote, compared to 74% of pro-Netanyahu voters, The Jerusalem Post: Nearly one-third of Israeli voters undecided just days before Knesset election, The Times of Israel: Everything you need to know: ToI’s guide to the 34 parties that Israelis can choose from, Israel National News: Poll: Arab parties reach record high of 15 Knesset seats, The Jerusalem Post: 'I love you': Ben-Gvir confronts Netanyahu over efforts to keep him out of government, The Times of Israel: Ben Gvir says Netanyahu has promised EU to exclude him from next government, Israel National News: Ben Gvir accuses Netanyahu, Likud fires back, شبكة يافا الإخبارية: Poll: Eisenkot’s Party Leads with 20 Seats as Bennett Rises to 14, The Economic Times: Israel election 2026: Netanyahu’s allies, rivals and the smaller parties that could decide his fate, Brussels Signal: Ben Gvir accuses Netanyahu of promising EU governments to drop him from cabinet, Reuters: Israeli elections: how they work and who is in the race, Haaretz: Benny Gantz Quits Israeli Election Race as Polls Show Party Wins No Seats, Reuters: Arab voter turnout could make or break Netanyahu in Israeli election, Al Jazeera: The kingmakers who could determine Israel’s election
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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19 Oct 2026
Polls Predict Far-Right Gains in Israel Elections
Ahead of the upcoming Israeli elections, news reports and polling data indicated that far-right parties are expected to see gains. These projections contributed to increased market attention regarding the potential seat count for Otzma Yehudit.
Sources: Israel National News: Arutz Sheva poll: Who will win the elections? Depends who you ask, The Guardian: ‘There’s a lot of racism, a lot of hatred’: Far right gains predicted as Israel heads to the polls
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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17 Oct 2026
Otzma Support Rises in Recent Polls
The chance of Otzma winning 8-9 seats increased following a report that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's political standing is rising as other leaders drop in the polls. This shift coincides with polling data showing changing seat distributions among various parties ahead of the 2026 election.
Sources: Jewish Telegraphic Agency: As Netanyahu drops in polls, Ben-Gvir’s star rises
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 10%, which means they saw about a 10 in 100 chance. That was down 24 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 19% to 6%: Otzma's Seats Prediction Market Drops After Election. As early election results and analysis emerged following the Israeli elections, the probability of Otzma winning 8-9 seats fell significantly. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 9).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 7 big jumps old enough to check, 6 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).