Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Yes at 11% on 29 Oct 2026, down 4 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Pedro Sánchez will be the next Prime Minister of Spain. To resolve as a yes, an individual must officially assume the office after receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in by March 31, 2028.
Spain is currently facing intense political and national pressure following a catastrophic train disaster in Toledo that resulted in at least 68 deaths. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has declared three days of mourning, vowed a thorough probe, and pledged a tough line on safety failures.
The disaster has severely impacted Sánchez’s standing as he faces an uphill election bid and heavy criticism. Key factors influencing his political future include the fallout from the train crash, violent unrest surrounding a right-wing event, and ongoing election polling tracking the race for the next prime minister.
Sources: POLITICO.eu: Spanish train disaster deals new blow to Sánchez’s long-shot election bid, Bloomberg.com: A New Spanish Tragedy Forces a Pre-Election Political Reckoning, The Economist: Spain election poll tracker: Who will be the next prime minister?, Free Malaysia Today: Spain train crash death toll rises to 68, PM Sanchez vows probe, News24: ‘Carnage by the dangerous far-left’: Rioters spread mayhem in Spain over right-wing event, The Australian: Spain’s Pedro Sanchez accused of being on the side of rioters following violent unrest, Euronews.com: Sánchez pledges tough line on safety failures after Toledo train crash, NewsCord: Pedro Sánchez Declares Three Days Of Mourning After Toledo Train Crash Kills At Least 68: 29 outlets compared, 조선일보: Spain Train Collision Kills at Least 68, Euronews.com: A train wreck: Can Sánchez survive Spain’s latest crisis?, LEADERSHIP Newspapers: Spain Train Crash: Death Toll Rises To 68 As PM Declares Three Days Of Mourning
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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5 Oct 2026
Pedro Sánchez Calls Snap Election in Spain
The likelihood of Pedro Sánchez remaining Prime Minister decreased after he called a snap election for November 29. Reports cited reasons including falling polls, mass protests, a housing crisis, and a parliamentary defeat.
Sources: Euronews.com: Spain PM Pedro Sánchez calls snap election for 29 November, The Jerusalem Post: Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez calls snap election for November 29 amid polls drop, BBC: Why has Spain's PM called a snap election?, Le Monde.fr: Spanish PM Sanchez announces early election in November, The Independent: Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez calls snap election after mass protests, The Independent: Why Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez has called a snap election, BBC: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calls early election, RTE.ie: Pedro Sanchez: Spain's great political survivor, BBC: Spain PM pins hopes on housing crisis to help win snap election, Судово-юридична газета: Early elections announced in Spain: Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez dissolved the parliament, Gibraltar Broadcasting Corporation: Pedro Sanchez calls snap election in Spain, EU Today: Sánchez Calls Snap Spanish Election After Housing Revolt and Parliamentary Defeat, Demócrata: What can Sánchez's Government do after calling elections and when does it take office, Demócrata: Abascal accuses Sánchez of being “the candidate of Morocco” ahead of the elections on 29N, Helsinki Times: Spanish PM Sánchez calls early election amid housing protests
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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2 Oct 2026
Pedro Sánchez Faces Potential Snap Elections in Spain
The probability of Pedro Sánchez remaining Prime Minister decreased after Spanish lawmakers rejected a key government housing measure. Following this parliamentary defeat, reports indicate that Spain is bracing for potential snap elections and Sánchez may weigh calling an early vote.
Sources: Euronews.com: Spanish lawmakers reject government housing measure amid protests, POLITICO.eu: Spain’s Sánchez weighs calling snap election after housing vote defeat, Financial Times: Pedro Sánchez loses vote on Spanish housing reform, The Times: Spain braces for snap election as Pedro Sánchez loses key votes, BBC: Spanish PM Sánchez loses key housing crisis vote after eviction of woman, 87, AP News: Spain's government dealt blow after parliament rejects housing measures. Early election speculated, Los Angeles Times: Spanish government loses both parliamentary votes to ratify emergency housing measures, تسنیم: Spain Sees Nationwide Protests as Parliament Prepares to Vote on Housing Measures, Agenzia Nova: Spain: Congress rejects housing decrees, heading for early elections; Sanchez will decide this weekend.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Spain's Sánchez Faces Possible Early Election
The likelihood of Pedro Sánchez remaining Prime Minister moved because Spanish lawmakers rejected a key government housing measure. Following this defeat, reports emerged that Sánchez is weighing the possibility of calling a snap election.
Sources: Euronews.com: Spanish lawmakers reject government housing measure amid protests, POLITICO.eu: Spain’s Sánchez weighs calling snap election after housing vote defeat, Financial Times: Pedro Sánchez loses vote on Spanish housing reform, The Times: Spain braces for snap election as Pedro Sánchez loses key votes, BBC: Spanish PM Sánchez loses key housing crisis vote after eviction of woman, 87, AP News: Spain's government dealt blow after parliament rejects housing measures. Early election speculated, Agenzia Nova: Spain: Congress rejects housing decrees, heading for early elections; Sanchez will decide this weekend., Stuff: Spanish protesters march on Parliament, as emergency housing decrees are rejected
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Next Prime Minister of Spain?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 11%, which means they saw about a 11 in 100 chance. That was down 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 5 Oct 2026, from 26% to 16%: Pedro Sánchez Calls Snap Election in Spain. The likelihood of Pedro Sánchez remaining Prime Minister decreased after he called a snap election for November 29. Reports cited reasons including falling polls, mass protests, a housing crisis, and a parliamentary defeat. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Apr 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.