Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 0% on 4 Nov 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Pete Hegseth will be the officially recognized head of state of Venezuela by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on who formally holds the position according to official government information or the United Nations on December 31, 2026.
Recent reports highlight major diplomatic and military developments involving the United States and Venezuela, including U.S. statements regarding control of oil reserves, military deployments, and meetings between U.S. officials and Venezuela's foreign minister. Meanwhile, former leader Nicolas Maduro is scheduled to stand trial in mid-2027.
Domestically, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces political scrutiny following midterm elections, though President Trump stated he has no plans to replace him.
Sources: EnergyNow.com: Trump Announces Sweeping US Grab for Control of Venezuela’s Vast Oil Reserves, Al Jazeera: US urges Venezuela to follow phased plan for democratic transition, Türkiye Today: Rubio meets Venezuela’s new foreign minister, pushes political transition, Al Arabiya English: Rubio meets new Venezuelan FM, urges release of political prisoners, Latin Times: Trump Claims 'Total Control' of Venezuela and 50% of the World's Oil, The Data Says Otherwise, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Reality check: Trump's Venezuela oil deal may have little immediate impact on US gas prices, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Trump sends aircraft carrier to waters around Central and South America, The New York Times: U.S. Assisted Venezuela in Deadly Drone Strike, Officials Say, Venezuelanalysis: Venezuela: Foreign Minister Blanco Meets Trump Officials, Touts ‘Cooperation’, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro will stand trial June 1, 2027, USA Today: Pete Hegseth stares down likely impeachment vote. And he's not the only one, CiberCuba: Trump administration negotiates agreement to establish a permanent U.S. military presence in Venezuela, CBS News: Trump asking advisers if Hegseth should stay after midterm losses, sources say, The Daily Beast: Trump Eyes Top Goon for Chopping Block After Midterm Humiliation, Apa.az: Trump says he has no plans to replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth - UPDATED
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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Other markets in “Venezuela leader end of 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.