Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 42% on 5 Nov 2026, up 12 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Pete Hegseth will leave the Trump administration before the end of 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if an official announcement of his departure, resignation, or removal is made by December 31, 2026, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration.
Following recent midterm election losses and a Democratic victory, intense scrutiny and reports of cabinet shake-up discussions have surrounded the administration. While some reports claim Donald Trump is discussing potential replacements for Hegseth and that he faces pressure to step down, Trump has publicly stated that he has every intention of keeping him and is not firing him.
The deadline for this market is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key factors influencing the current speculation include election outcomes, political pressure from within the Republican party, and ongoing discussions among administration sources regarding cabinet changes.
Sources: The Daily Beast: Trump Plots Secret Move to Dump Hegseth and Save Face, NewsNation: Trump, Hegseth and other cabinet members that could face impeachment, Yahoo: Trump stands by Hegseth after election losses, but other Republicans want him out, Newsmax: Hegseth Fires Back as Trump Dismisses Cabinet Shake-Up Talk, NBC News: Trump discussing possible Hegseth replacements, sources say, uPolitics: Trump Says He Has ‘Every Intention’ Of Keeping Pete Hegseth As GOP Blames Defense Secretary For..., CBS News: Trump says he is not firing Pete Hegseth, The Washington Post: ‘Knives out’ for Hegseth, other military leaders after Iran war dooms GOP
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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5 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Pete Hegseth Faces Possible Departure Following Midterm Defeat
The chance of Pete Hegseth leaving the Trump administration increased after reports emerged that Donald Trump is considering firing him following a Republican midterm election defeat. Advisors were polled on cutting him loose, while insiders and experts suggested he may be made the fall guy for the losses.
Sources: Kalshi News: Hegseth's cabinet exit odds hit 57% after midterms, Mediaite: Trump Polling His Advisors On Whether He Should Cut Pete Hegseth Loose After Midterm Drubbing: Report, NBC 15 WPMI: Trump is considering firing Hegseth after devastating GOP midterm loss: report, International Business Times UK: Trump Weighs Firing Pete Hegseth After Crushing Midterm Defeat as Ron DeSantis Emerges as Possible Replacement, The Independent: Trump might be gearing up to fire Pete Hegseth after all, New York Post: Trump weighs making Pete Hegseth the fall guy for Republicans’ crushing midterms loss: ‘Knives are definitely out’, The Sun: Trump to ax Hegseth in WEEKS as WH looks to place blame for Iran, experts say, CNN: Republicans quickly turn against Pete Hegseth after midterms rout
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Pete Hegseth Market Moves
The chance of Pete Hegseth leaving the administration dropped after several opinion pieces and reports discussed his political standing, including predictions that he would become a midterm fall guy. However, a later report stated that Trump was reportedly weighing firing Hegseth, though this article was published after the specified time window. No articles within the exact timeframe directly explain the downward price movement.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
Pete Hegseth stays in office despite firing general
The market probability for Pete Hegseth leaving the administration dropped after news reports showed him actively firing a top Pentagon strategist and general over alleged leaks. Rather than facing departure himself, Hegseth demonstrated his administrative authority by executing high-profile Pentagon personnel changes.
Sources: The Daily Beast: Hegseth Fires General Targeted by Crackpot MAGA Hate Campaigner, Fox News: Hegseth fires top Pentagon strategist accused of leaking classified Iran, Ukraine war information, Seeking Alpha: Hegseth fires Pentagon’s top military planner as Trump weighs new Iran strikes (ITA:BATS), Newsweek: Hegseth Fires Top Military Planner—List of High-Profile Pentagon Departures, The New York Times: Hegseth Fires General He Accused of Leaking Information to the News Media
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 42%, which means they saw about a 42 in 100 chance. That was up 12 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 40% to 68%: Pete Hegseth Faces Possible Departure Following Midterm Defeat. The chance of Pete Hegseth leaving the Trump administration increased after reports emerged that Donald Trump is considering firing him following a Republican midterm election defeat. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.