Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes at 34% on 28 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 25 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Puma Shen will win the upcoming Taipei mayoral election, scheduled for November 28, 2026. The market resolves based on the official winner certified by the Taiwan Central Election Commission or a consensus of credible reporting, with a resolution deadline of June 30, 2027.
The mayoral race has entered its final stretch following the official ballot number draw by candidates. Recent polling indicates Puma Shen leading in favorability, while current incumbent Chiang Wan-an and other contenders actively campaign and mobilize supporters across the city.
Key factors in the election include local policy proposals, such as Taipei waterway development plans, alongside reports regarding external geopolitical pressures and international attention on the race.
Sources: Focus Taiwan: 2026 ELECTIONS DPP's Shen unveils Taipei waterway plan, attends Halloween event, Taiwan News: Taipei mayor opens campaign headquarters, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: KMT supporters mobilizing quietly, lawmaker says, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Shen’s campaign turning into movement: DPP insider, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Shen unveils Taipei waterway plan, attends Halloween event, Vision Times: US Think Tanks Warn Beijing May Be Targeting Puma Shen to Influence Taipei Election, UA.NEWS: Candidate Puma Shen unveils plan for Taipei waterways — Taipei Times, 联合早报: Taipei mayor takes veiled swipe at Puma Shen, says substance beats showmanship, Taiwan News: Taipei mayoral candidates draw ballot numbers, Focus Taiwan: 2026 ELECTIONS Ballot number draw kicks off final stretch of Taiwan's local races, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: China trying to isolate Puma Shen: source, Taiwan News: Taiwan poll puts Shen 11 points ahead of Chiang in favorability, LatestLY: World News | China Accused of Intimidation Campaign to Isolate Taiwan Politician, Big News Network.com: China accused of intimidation campaign to isolate Taiwan politician, The Straits Times: Can KMT’s Chiang Wan-an rally supporters in tight mayor race to defend his Taipei seat?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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28 Nov 2026
Taiwan Local Elections
The election will be held to determine the next Mayor of Taipei, directly deciding the outcome of the market.
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29 Nov 2026
Market Closing
The market closes as the election concludes and results begin to finalize.
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30 Jun 2027
Final Resolution Deadline
By this date, the market will resolve to "Other" if no winner has been officially elected or known.
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Any time before the election
Campaign Developments and Polls
Further voter polling, campaign announcements regarding infrastructure plans, and candidate momentum could shift market expectations.
Source: Focus Taiwan: 2026 ELECTIONS DPP's Shen unveils Taipei waterway plan, attends Halloween event, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Shen unveils Taipei waterway plan, attends Halloween event, Taiwan News: Taipei mayoral candidates draw ballot numbers, Taiwan News: Taiwan poll puts Shen 11 points ahead of Chiang in favorability, The Straits Times: Can KMT’s Chiang Wan-an rally supporters in tight mayor race to defend his Taipei seat?
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Any time before the election
External Political Interference Reports
Additional reports or think-tank warnings concerning foreign influence or intimidation campaigns targeting Puma Shen could impact voter sentiment.
Source: Vision Times: US Think Tanks Warn Beijing May Be Targeting Puma Shen to Influence Taipei Election, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: China trying to isolate Puma Shen: source, LatestLY: World News | China Accused of Intimidation Campaign to Isolate Taiwan Politician, Big News Network.com: China accused of intimidation campaign to isolate Taiwan politician
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
Puma Shen's Mayoral Campaign Developments
Puma Shen continued his mayoral campaign by launching a policy platform and unveiling a water plan ahead of the upcoming election. Meanwhile, rival candidate Chiang rallied allies and inaugurated his campaign office.
Sources: Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Shen launches ‘policy island’ as Chiang rallies allies, UA.NEWS: Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen launches 94-point platform — Taipei Times, Taipei Times: Chiang inaugurates campaign office as Shen unveils water plan
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 34%, which means they saw about a 34 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 38% to 28%: Puma Shen's Mayoral Campaign Developments. Puma Shen continued his mayoral campaign by launching a policy platform and unveiling a water plan ahead of the upcoming election. Meanwhile, rival candidate Chiang rallied allies and inaugurated his campaign office. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Taiwan Local Elections (28 Nov 2026); Market Closing (29 Nov 2026); Final Resolution Deadline (30 Jun 2027). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 29 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).