Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Context

This market asks whether the United Arab List, known as Ra'am, will win 8 or more seats in Israel's 2026 Knesset elections. The market will resolve based on the final official results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting.

Following the election held on October 27, 2026, exit polls and ongoing vote counts indicate political gridlock with no clear winner. Arab parties, including Ra'am, have made a surprise showing and secured a strong performance with a record Arab voter turnout.

With nearly 90 percent of the votes counted, parties like Ra'am and the Joint List have emerged as potential kingmakers in the deadlocked parliament. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and rival leaders face difficult paths to forming a government amidst the close race.

Sources: The New York Times: Israel Election Results Live Updates: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner, PBS: What's next for Israel after election produces political gridlock, The New York Times: Surprise Showing by Arab Parties in Israeli Vote Puts Them in Spotlight, Al Jazeera: No clear winner in Israel election with nearly 90 percent of votes counted, ABP Live English: Israel Election: Arab Parties Set For Record Knesset Seats, Could Become Kingmakers, The Daily Jagran: Israel Election: Arab Parties Hold Key To Govt Formation As Netanyahu, Eisenkot Face Difficult Paths To Power, Pragativadi: ​Arab Parties Joint List and Ra’am Emerge as Kingmakers in Deadlocked Israeli Election

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

1. 2029 Oct 2026

   Jump detected

   6% → 33%

   Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

   After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

2. 1928 Oct 2026

   Arab Parties Record Strong Performance in Israeli Election

   1% → 27%Likely cause

   Partial election results and subsequent news reports indicated that Arab-majority parties achieved historic gains and a record performance in the Israeli Knesset elections. Following these results, Likud claimed the election was stolen due to the high turnout and success of Arab parties.

   Sources: Haaretz: 'Arab parties are a force you can't ignore' • Israel's election had the Arab world glued to its screens, too, The Times of Israel: Likud claims election ‘stolen’ by Arab parties following their record performance, France 24: Historic gains for Arab-majority parties in Israeli election

   After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

3. 1828 Oct 2026

   Ra'am Seats Market Drops Amid Election Results

   18% → 3%Likely cause

   The price for Ra'am winning 8 or more seats dropped following news about the 2026 Israeli legislative elections. Exit polls and early results indicated the outcome was unclear and gridlocked as the nation awaited final vote counts.

   Sources: The Washington Post: No clear winner in Israeli vote, exit polls indicate, Spectrum News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Israel awaits election results as exit polls suggest close race for Netanyahu, The New York Times: Rivals in Israel Election Strike Tone of Triumph, but Outcome Is Far From Clear

   After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

4. 1727 Oct 2026

   Ra'am Surges in Exit Polls

   10% → 33%Likely cause

   The probability of Ra'am winning 8 or more seats increased after exit polls showed Arab parties making gains in the Israeli election. Reports highlighted a historic show of strength for Israel's Arab minority and indicated that the next prime minister will need to take the Arab vote into account.

   Sources: France 24: Israel: First exit polls show no clear winner, Arab parties make gains, The Guardian: Rise of Palestinian parties in Knesset will redraw Israel’s political landscape, The Times of Israel: Segalovitz: Ra'am wants to be part of coalition, next PM will have to take Arab vote into account, The New York Times: A Historic Show of Strength for Israel’s Arab Minority

   After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.

5. 1627 Oct 2026

   Exit Polls Show Setback for Netanyahu

   17% → 4%Likely cause

   Israeli exit polls following the 2026 election showed a political deadlock and a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The results emerged as voting concluded and exit poll data became available.

   Sources: Reuters: Israeli exit polls show deadlock, point to setback for Netanyahu

   After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.

6. 1526 Oct 2026

   Ra'am's Role in Israel's Election

   3% → 16%Likely cause

   The price jumped as reports highlighted the potential impact of Arab parties in the upcoming Israeli election. Media coverage pointed to the possibility that these parties could play a key role in the political outcome.

   Sources: The Washington Post: Netanyahu casts Arab parties as a threat. They could be key to his defeat., New York Post: Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promise

   After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

7. 1423 Oct 2026

   Ra'am Seat Market Drops Amid Election Polling

   18% → 7%Likely cause

   As voters headed to the polls, final election polls and media reports highlighted tight blocs and opposition leads. However, specific projections regarding the exact seat count for the United Arab List were not confirmed in these reports.

   Sources: ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Israelis are heading to the polls in their most seismic election in decades, The Guardian: ‘The biggest motivation is fear’: High turnout among Israel’s Palestinians could unseat Netanyahu, The Media Line: Israel’s Election: The Polls Are Split, and So Is the Press, The Jerusalem Post: Israel election poll: Opposition leads Benjamin Netanyahu bloc 54-48

   After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

8. 1323 Oct 2026

   Jump detected

   5% → 14%

   Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

   After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.

9. 1221 Oct 2026

   Jump detected

   11% → 2%

   Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

   After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.

10. 1121 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    15% → 4%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

11. 1019 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    18% → 7%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

12. 919 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    5% → 21%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

13. 818 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    15% → 3%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.

14. 718 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    5% → 13%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

15. 617 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    4% → 17%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

16. 516 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    16% → 4%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

17. 416 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    5% → 20%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.

18. 315 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    17% → 7%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

19. 215 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    6% → 17%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

20. 114 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    4% → 16%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.