Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes at 2% on 28 Oct 2026, down 39 pts over the previous 7 days. 16 big jumps since 15 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United Arab List, known as Ra'am, will win exactly five seats in the Israeli Knesset following the legislative elections held on October 27, 2026. The market will resolve based on the official final results from Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting.
As vote counting continues, early results and exit polls point to a deadlock while Arab parties eye potential gains and record representation. Ra'am chief Mansour Abbas has stated that figures from both major political blocs have approached him as coalition negotiations loom.
With vote tallies still underway, key factors include the final seat distribution among Arab factions and how parties will navigate coalition building. The market will close on November 30, 2026, pending final certified results.
Sources: Arab News: High voter turnout boosts Arab parties as Israel election results roll in, RTE.ie: Israeli election results in deadlock, exit polls predict, ANI News: Ra’am chief Abbas says figures from both blocs approach him amid Israel coalition deadlock, The Times of Israel: Segalovitz: Ra'am wants to be part of coalition, next PM will have to take Arab vote into account, CNN: Israel’s election outcome will take time to become clear – what happens now?, Palestine Chronicle: Arab Parties Eye Historic Gains as Mansour Abbas Calls for Government Change, Saudi Gazette: Arab parties on track to win record seats in Israel election, polls show, Yeni Şafak English: Netanyahu bloc leads with 54 seats as Israeli count reaches 84%, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 17 seats in next Knesset
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Ra'am Party Seat Projections Decline in Israeli Election
Exit polls for the Israeli election indicated no clear winner as voting took place. Coverage noted that the Ra'am party leader voted and that Arab voters could play a significant role in the outcome. However, no article specifically confirms the party winning exactly five seats.
Sources: San Antonio Express-News: Israeli election has no clear winner, exit polls suggest. Here's what to know and what's likely next, The Lufkin Daily News: Palestinian candidate Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, holds his daughter as he places his vote at a polling station, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Maghar, The Lufkin Daily News: Palestinian candidate Mansour, Abbas leader of the Ra'am party walks towards a polling station with his wife and daughter, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Maghar, Nacionale: Israel’s Arab voters could decide who governs, though no Jewish party wants them in government
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Ra'am Prediction Market Probability Drops
The probability of Ra'am winning exactly 5 seats decreased following recent news coverage regarding Israel's election. An article from the New York Post discussed how Arab parties could potentially oust Netanyahu depending on the opposition's actions.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Ra'am Share Rises Amid Election Polls and Alliances
Final polls ahead of the Israeli election showed blocs falling short of a majority, while Arab-Israeli parties prepared for an opposition alliance. These developments around the election coincided with an increase in the market probability.
Sources: The Tribune: Final polls show Netanyahu and opposition blocs short of majority ahead of Israel election: Israeli media, France 24: To bring down Netanyahu, Arab-Israeli parties ready for opposition alliance, Türkiye Today: Final Israeli election polls leave Netanyahu bloc stuck at 50 seats, short of majority
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Ra'am seat prediction market volatility
The probability of Ra'am winning exactly five seats decreased following reports of potential opposition alliances. These discussions regarding a coalition to challenge Netanyahu may have influenced market expectations for the party's electoral performance.
Sources: France 24: To bring down Netanyahu, Arab-Israeli parties ready for opposition alliance
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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23 Oct 2026
Ra'am seat prediction market volatility
No matching news was found to explain the price movement in the prediction market between 2026-10-23 01:00 and 04:00 UTC. The provided article was published on 2026-10-22 and does not contain information regarding specific seat counts or events occurring during the time of the price shift.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Ra'am Election Outlook Shifts Amidst Campaign Developments
The increase in the market's 'Yes' probability occurred following reports on the ongoing Israeli election campaign. Specifically, a top Arab-Israeli candidate publicly commented on the potential impact of the election results during the afternoon of October 21. This development coincided with the observed shift in market sentiment regarding the party's seat count.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Ra'am Seat Prediction Market Movement
The increase in the probability of Ra'am winning exactly five seats coincides with the release of reports discussing potential election outcomes and deadlock scenarios. These articles analyze various political possibilities as the October 27 election date approaches. No specific polling data regarding Ra'am's seat count was provided in the available reports to definitively explain the shift.
Sources: Yeni Safak English: Israel election: Four scenarios as polls predict deadlock, Naharnet: Israel's elections: Four possible scenarios, شبكة تواصل الإخبارية: Israel election 2026: Three possible scenarios after October 27 polls
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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20 Oct 2026
No news found explaining Ra'am seat prediction market shift
The provided news articles do not contain information regarding polling data or specific seat projections for the Ra'am party that would explain the shift in market sentiment. No matching news was found to account for the change in the probability of Ra'am winning exactly five seats.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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20 Oct 2026
No news found to explain Ra'am seat prediction shift
No matching news was found in the provided articles to explain the shift in the prediction market for Ra'am's seat count. The available reports focus on general election explanations and polling for other political figures.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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20 Oct 2026
Ra'am's Role as Potential Kingmaker in Israeli Elections
Recent reports highlight the United Arab List (Ra'am) as a potential kingmaker in the upcoming Israeli elections. This increased focus on the party's influence in the election battle aligns with the shift in market sentiment regarding their seat count.
Sources: Al Jazeera: The kingmakers who could determine Israel’s election, The Arab Weekly: Israel’s Arab minority emerges as potential kingmaker in election battle, Ratopati: Israel Election: Arab and Ultra-Orthodox Parties Could Be Kingmakers
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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18 Oct 2026
No news found
We found no news published around this move. Sudden moves without news are often a single large trade, especially in markets with low volume.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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18 Oct 2026
Ra'am Election Outlook Shifts
The market probability for Ra'am winning five seats increased following reports on the significance of the upcoming election for Israel's Arab minority. This coverage highlights the heightened focus on the party's performance as voters consider the election an existential matter.
Sources: The Straits Times: Keen for change, Israel’s Arab minority sees election as existential
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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17 Oct 2026
No news found
We found no news published around this move. Sudden moves without news are often a single large trade, especially in markets with low volume.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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16 Oct 2026
Ra'am Seat Prediction Market Probability Declines
The probability of Ra'am winning exactly five seats decreased following reports highlighting the party's potential role as a kingmaker in the upcoming Israeli elections. Articles published on October 16 suggest that Arab-led parties may gain seats, which could shift expectations regarding their final parliamentary representation.
Sources: SuaraGarut.ID: Arab Parties Gain Seats as Israeli Election Deadlock Deepens, PBS: Arab-led parties could decide the Israeli election, if anyone would partner with them, The New York Times: The Arab Kingmaker in Israel’s Election Who Wants a Partnership With Jews
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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15 Oct 2026
Market shift on Ra'am seat projections
The increase in the market's 'Yes' probability coincides with reports regarding the influence of small parties in the upcoming Israeli election. An article from The Times of Israel highlights that parties hovering near the minimum vote threshold could be decisive in determining the election outcome. No other provided articles offer information relevant to the specific seat count for Ra'am.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was down 39 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 32% to 14%: Ra'am Party Seat Projections Decline in Israeli Election. Exit polls for the Israeli election indicated no clear winner as voting took place. Coverage noted that the Ra'am party leader voted and that Arab voters could play a significant role in the outcome. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 15).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 15 big jumps old enough to check, 8 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).