Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes at 4% on 29 Oct 2026, down 20 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 24 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United Arab List, known as Ra'am, will win exactly six seats in Israel's legislative elections. The market resolves based on the official final number of seats won by Ra'am, according to credible reporting and Israel's Central Election Committee.
Following the election held on October 27, 2026, partial results and exit polls show an inconclusive race with no clear winner and high voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Arab parties, including Ra'am, are projected to make strong gains, positioning themselves as potential kingmakers while drawing accusations from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party.
Sources: NPR: Partial results from Israel's contentious election show no clear winner, Saudi Gazette: Arab parties on track to win record seats in Israel election, polls show, Al Jazeera: High voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel threatens Netanyahu, The New York Times: Rivals in Israel Election Strike Tone of Triumph, but Outcome Is Far From Clear, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 19 seats in next Knesset, Times Union: What to know about Israel's election results as votes are counted with no clear winner, Firstpost: Netanyahu’s Likud accuses Arab parties of ‘stealing’ Israel election as coalition deadlock looms, NewsCord: Exit Polls Project Joint List And Ra’am As Israel Election Kingmakers With 17 Seats: how 12 outlets framed it, The New York Times: Israel Election Results Live Updates: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner, https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/: Netanyahu Accuses Arab Parties of Election Theft as Israel Votes
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Ra'am Seat Count Drops After Polling Data Updates
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly six seats decreased following updates on election results and polling data. Articles published during this period indicated that Arab parties were on track to win a higher number of total seats, reaching up to 19 seats in the next Knesset.
Sources: Saudi Gazette: Arab parties on track to win record seats in Israel election, polls show, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 19 seats in next Knesset
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Ra'am Share Drops Amid Israeli Election Turnout News
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly 6 seats decreased as early reports highlighted high voter turnout and strong showings for Arab parties in the Israeli elections. Articles noted a historic show of strength and a potential record number of seats for Arab parties, introducing uncertainty for specific seat counts.
Sources: Arab News: High voter turnout boosts Arab parties as Israel election results roll in, NPR: Israel's voter turnout soars as Netanyahu faces a tight election, The New York Times: A Historic Show of Strength for Israel’s Arab Minority, +972 Magazine: The battle for Jewish votes among Israel’s Palestinian parties
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Ra'am Market Rises Amid Record Turnout and Election Claims
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly six seats rose as reports highlighted high voter turnout and claims regarding Arab parties in the election. Articles from news outlets noted Netanyahu's accusations and discussions surrounding the Palestinian vote.
Sources: The Journal: Israel election on track for record turnout as Benjamin Netanyahu attacks Arab parties, France 24: Netanyahu's Likud party says Arab parties 'stole' the election, Free Malaysia Today: Netanyahu says ‘they’re trying to steal the election’, attacks Arab parties, Madhyamam: Netanyahu accuses Arab party of election fraud as voting begins
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Polls and Alliance Talks Impact Israeli Election Market
Final pre-election polls showed the Netanyahu bloc stuck at fifty seats, falling short of a majority. Meanwhile, Arab-Israeli parties prepared for an opposition alliance to potentially bring down Netanyahu.
Sources: The New Indian Express: To bring down Netanyahu, Arab-Israeli parties ready for opposition alliance, Türkiye Today: Final Israeli election polls leave Netanyahu bloc stuck at 50 seats, short of majority
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 4%, which means they saw about a 4 in 100 chance. That was down 20 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 32% to 12%: Ra'am Seat Count Drops After Polling Data Updates. The chance of Ra'am winning exactly six seats decreased following updates on election results and polling data. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).