Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes at 72% on 28 Oct 2026, up 63 pts over the previous 7 days. 15 big jumps since 14 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the United Arab List, known as Ra'am, will win exactly 7 seats in Israel's 2026 Knesset elections. The market resolves based on the official final results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting.
Following the election held on October 27, 2026, partial results and exit polls indicate a high turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, leaving major political blocs short of an outright majority. While exit polls and early data point to gains for Arab parties, the definitive outcome remains unclear as vote counting continues.
Key figures such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ra'am representatives have responded to the shifting political landscape, with Ra'am expressing a desire to influence future coalition talks. Final results and the ultimate distribution of seats are still pending further updates.
Sources: The Times of Israel: Segalovitz: Ra'am wants to be part of coalition, next PM will have to take Arab vote into account, The New York Times: A Historic Show of Strength for Israel’s Arab Minority, Swarajya: Netanyahu Rejects Coalition With Arab Parties As Election Exit Polls Leave Both Major Blocs Short Of Power, vreme.com: Elections in Israel: Record turnout, Netanyahu without a majority, NPR: Partial results from Israel’s contentious election show no clear winner, Al Jazeera: High voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel threatens Netanyahu, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 17 seats in next Knesset, Muslim Network TV: High voter turnout boosts Palestinian parties as Israel election results roll in
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Ra'am Party Seats Rise in Israel Election
Partial election results and polling data released following the Israeli election indicated that Arab parties, including Ra'am, were projected to rise significantly in the next Knesset. These reports contributed to increased confidence regarding the exact seat count for the party.
Sources: NPR: Partial results from Israel’s contentious election show no clear winner, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 17 seats in next Knesset
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Ra'am Support Rises Amid High Arab Voter Turnout
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats increased as exit polls and reports indicated record voter turnout among Arab Israelis. High turnout boosted expectations for Arab parties as early election results and exit polls began to emerge.
Sources: Times Now: Israel Election 2026: Arab Israeli Voters Turn Out In Record Numbers As Netanyahu Sounds ‘Life And Death’ Alar, NPR: Israel's voter turnout soars as Netanyahu faces a tight election, Arab News: High voter turnout boosts Arab parties as Israel election results roll in
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Ra'am Vote-Buying Arrests and Exit Polls
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats dropped after exit polls showed no clear winner in Israel's election. Additionally, reports emerged that Israeli police arrested three people in an alleged vote-buying plot for Ra'am in the Negev.
Sources: San Antonio Express-News: Israeli election has no clear winner, exit polls suggest. Here's what to know and what's likely next, Türkiye Today: Israeli police arrest 3 in alleged vote-buying plot for Ra’am in Negev
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Ra'am's Potential Impact on Israel Election
The price jumped as reports highlighted that Arab parties in Israel could potentially oust Netanyahu if the opposition breaks an election promise. This news emphasized the strategic importance and potential influence of Arab parties in the upcoming election.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Rise in Palestinian Vote Focuses Attention on Israel Elections
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats increased as discussions intensified regarding Arab political parties and voter turnout in the upcoming Israeli election. Reports highlighted the potential role of Arab parties in shaping the future government and the rise in the Palestinian vote. These developments directed attention toward the electoral prospects of parties like Ra'am.
Sources: New York Post: Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promise, Middle East Eye: What's behind the rise of the Palestinian vote in Israel's 2026 election?
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Ra'am Market Probability Drops Amid Israeli Election Analysis
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats decreased as news outlets published analysis regarding how seats are won and how the political parties are structured. Articles detailed the mechanics of the Israeli elections and explained the positions of Ra'am and other political factions.
Sources: European Jewish Press: Israeli elections – political parties explained: Ra’am and the Joint List, Pearls and Irritations: Israel election 2026: Who votes, how seats are won and what happens next
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Ra'am Seat Projections Shift
Final polls and reporting leading up to the Israeli election indicated that small parties could be impacted as both political blocs fell short of a majority. Additionally, reports highlighted potential opposition alliances involving Arab-Israeli parties.
Sources: The Times of Israel: Final polls before election show both blocs short of majority, small parties out of Knesset, The Straits Times: To bring down Netanyahu, Arab-Israeli parties ready for opposition alliance, Türkiye Today: Final Israeli election polls leave Netanyahu bloc stuck at 50 seats, short of majority
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Ra'am Party Chief Warns of Netanyahu Win
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats dropped after reports featuring remarks from Ra'am party chief Mansour Abbas. Abbas stated that a victory by Netanyahu would be a catastrophe ahead of the election.
Sources: Al Arabiya English: Top Arab-Israeli election candidate says Netanyahu win would be ‘catastrophe’: Report, RFI: Top Arab-Israeli election candidate tells AFP Netanyahu win would be 'catastrophe', The Times of Israel: Ra’am party chief Abbas says Netanyahu win would be ‘catastrophe’
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Israel Holds General Election Amidst Regional Conflict
As Israel held its general election amidst regional conflict, various media outlets reported on the unfolding vote and possible political scenarios. While the articles discussed election day and party breakdowns, none specifically reported results regarding the number of seats won by Ra'am to directly explain the market shift.
Sources: Ratopati: Israel Holds General Election Amidst Regional Conflict, The Straits Times: Israel’s elections: Four possible scenarios, The Standard (HK): Israel's elections: Four possible scenarios, Yeni Safak English: Israel election: Four scenarios as polls predict deadlock, JewishBoston: To Bibi or Not to Bibi? Scenarios for Israel’s Crucial Elections
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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20 Oct 2026
Ra'am Party Profile Published Ahead of Israeli Elections
The chance of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats increased as media outlets published explainers and profiles regarding Israeli political parties. Specifically, a publication by JNS.org detailed the background of Ra'am and the Joint List right before the probability shifted upward.
Sources: JNS.org: Israel’s political parties explained: Ra’am and the Joint List
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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17 Oct 2026
No Matching News Found for Ra'am Market Move
The provided news article from Aurora Israel does not contain any information explaining the drop in the prediction market for Ra'am winning exactly seven seats in the 2026 Knesset elections. Therefore, no matching news was found to account for this change.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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16 Oct 2026
Ra'am Seat Projections Shift in Prediction Market
The likelihood of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats decreased as news coverage examined potential scenarios for the upcoming Israeli elections. Reports discussed shifting seat counts for Arab parties and outlined four possible electoral scenarios.
Sources: ASHARQ AL-AWSAT English: Israel’s Elections: Four Possible Scenarios, Inquirer.net: Israel’s elections: What happens next?, Naharnet: Israel's elections: Four possible scenarios, SuaraGarut.ID: Arab Parties Gain Seats as Israeli Election Deadlock Deepens
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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16 Oct 2026
Ra'am's Election Prospects Draw Attention
The likelihood of Ra'am winning seven seats rose as recent coverage focused on the role of Arab parties in the upcoming Israeli elections and their potential to influence the outcome. Articles highlighted the strategic importance of Arab-led factions and the possibility of gaining seats amidst a political deadlock.
Sources: PBS: Arab-led parties could decide the Israeli election, if anyone would partner with them, The New York Times: The Arab Kingmaker in Israel’s Election Who Wants a Partnership With Jews, SuaraGarut.ID: Arab Parties Gain Seats as Israeli Election Deadlock Deepens
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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15 Oct 2026
No Matching News Found for Ra'am Market Move
None of the published articles explain the price move for the Ra'am prediction market. No matching news regarding the Israeli elections or Ra'am seat count was found during this time period.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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14 Oct 2026
Ra'am Prediction Market Rises
The likelihood of Ra'am winning exactly seven seats increased between 2026-10-14 11:00 and 2026-10-14 14:00 UTC. An article published earlier that day discussed how small parties hovering around the minimum vote threshold could determine the outcome of the election.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 72%, which means they saw about a 72 in 100 chance. That was up 63 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 52% to 78%: Ra'am Party Seats Rise in Israel Election. Partial election results and polling data released following the Israeli election indicated that Arab parties, including Ra'am, were projected to rise significantly in the next Knesset. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 15).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 13 big jumps old enough to check, 6 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).