Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 19% on 6 Nov 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Russia will launch a military offensive to establish control over any portion of a UN member state's territory, excluding Ukraine, by December 31, 2026. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine its resolution.
Current reporting primarily focuses on ongoing military engagements and strikes within Ukraine, alongside heightened security tensions involving NATO and discussions surrounding Russian assets and international participation in events.
Key factors include NATO planning potential deterrence measures against Russian escalation, ongoing front-line conflicts in Ukraine, and regional security concerns highlighted by experts regarding activities near borders.
Sources: Cirebon Times: NATO Plans Deep Strikes to Deter Russian Military Escalation, RBC-Ukraine: Ukraine thwarts Russian advances across several front-line sectors – ISW, https://www.irishsun.com/: Black Sea shipping war tests NATO's defenses, The Moscow Times: Kremlin Seizes Japan Tobacco International’s Russian Assets, BelTA – News: Expert explains spike in military activity near Belarus’ borders
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 19%, which means they saw about a 19 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.