Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 3% on 6 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Russia will launch a military offensive to take control of any part of a UN member state's territory, excluding Ukraine, before the end of 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if such an invasion occurs by December 31, 2026, based on credible reporting consensus, and "No" otherwise.
Current reporting focuses primarily on the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is nearing its 1,716th day, alongside international developments like growing foreign recruitment into the Russian military, NATO strategy planning, and recent diplomatic contacts involving officials meeting with a Russian envoy.
Sources: RBC-Ukraine: NATO prepares new strategy to hit Russian military and industrial targets far behind the front, Facebook: DW News. . While the Democrats win in the US midterm elections could mean big changes ahead for Americans, Ukrainians are remaining largely skeptical about what the results could mean for their country. Four and a half years into Russia's full-scale invasi, Council on Foreign Relations: War in Ukraine | Global Conflict Tracker, SLDinfo.com: Russia’s Foreign Legion Keeps Growing: Nearly 46,000 Recruits From 151 Countries, Daily Kos: Ukraine Invasion Day 1,716: more feints/faints at peace, London Business News: NATO plans devastating deep strikes on Russia’s ‘military-industrial base’, PBS: WATCH: First lady Melania Trump hosted Russian and Ukrainian officials. Trump met with Putin's envoy
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Russia invade another country in 2026”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 3%, which means they saw about a 3 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.