Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
8 big jumps since 1 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Prediction Markets Focus on Samuel Alito Retirement Bets
Prediction markets have drawn attention as traders place bets on whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement. No other official announcements or relevant developments regarding a retirement were reported in the available articles during this time.
Sources: Bloomberg Law News: Bets on Alito Show Supreme Court Tangled in Prediction Markets
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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23 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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18 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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16 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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4 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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2 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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1 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 44% to 52%: Prediction Markets Focus on Samuel Alito Retirement Bets. Prediction markets have drawn attention as traders place bets on whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 8).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 8 big jumps old enough to check, 4 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jul 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.