Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Yes at 2% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Santiago Abascal will become the next Prime Minister of Spain. The market resolves based on official government sources if he officially assumes office and receives a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies by March 31, 2028.
Spain is currently facing a major political reckoning following a high-speed train crash that killed at least 68 people ahead of an upcoming national election. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has declared three days of national mourning, and political parties have suspended their election events, with the exception of Vox.
The upcoming national election is scheduled for November 29, 2026. While major parties have halted campaigning following the tragedy, Vox has continued its election activities as candidate lists and province-by-province preparations move forward.
Sources: DW.com: Spain train crash: Sanchez declares 3 days of mourning after 68 killed, POLITICO.eu: Spanish train disaster deals new blow to Sánchez’s long-shot election bid, Bloomberg.com: A New Spanish Tragedy Forces a Pre-Election Political Reckoning, The New York Times: ‘A Twisted Tangle of Metal and Wreckage’: Spain Train Crash Kills at Least 68, ERN - English Radio News: All political parties suspend election events except for Vox, The Economist: Spain election poll tracker: Who will be the next prime minister?, Demócrata: Vox list search for 29N: consult who the candidates are province by province, Euronews.com: A train wreck: Can Sánchez survive Spain’s latest crisis?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Mar 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.