Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 39% on 6 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 2 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Steve Witkoff will attend a formal senior-level round of peace talks or diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if he attends such a meeting in an official capacity, while indirect diplomacy via mediators can also qualify under specific conditions.
Recent reports indicate that diplomatic efforts concerning Iran are active following US midterm elections and ongoing discussions involving figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner regarding regional peace talks and Ukraine negotiations. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have engaged in separate high-level diplomatic visits with international leaders like Vladimir Putin to discuss leverage and regional security.
Key factors include upcoming trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and various diplomatic tracks between Washington and Tehran. The articles highlight ongoing strategic positioning by Iran and consultations involving Steve Witkoff ahead of major negotiations.
Sources: Latin Times: US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks are set to resume in Abu Dhabi after a nine-month pause, Iran International: Iran looks to China and Russia for leverage in US talks, Politico: Tehran gloats as Republicans take a beating, Free Press Kashmir: Russia, Ukraine and US to hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, The Arab Weekly: Wide differences keep Iran, US far from agreement to end war, UA.NEWS: Zelenskyy Discussed Upcoming Peace Talks with Witkoff and Kushner, Eurasia Review: Two Tracks To Tehran: The New Efforts To Stop Another US-Iran War – Analysis, The Arab Weekly: Middle East to pay for Trump’s midterm rout, Knewz: Zelenskyy talks to Witkoff and Kushner ahead of negotiations, The News Pakistan: What are Trump’s options on Iran after midterm election setback, Iran International: Iran steps up diplomacy as Trump reels from midterm defeat, The Maritime Executive: Iran Turns Down Putin's Offer to Mediate Hormuz Conflict, Firstpost: Globe at a Glance: From 25 bomb threats over Europe to Putin’s Iran meeting, NewsBytes: Trump to decide on Iran military action: Report, Al Jazeera: Iran’s security chief meets Putin, delivers message from Khamenei
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Witkoff Discusses Peace Talks
The market probability increased following discussions involving Trump envoy Steve Witkoff regarding upcoming peace talks. Reports highlighted diplomatic efforts and coordination involving Witkoff and other officials.
Sources: UA.NEWS: Zelenskyy Discussed Upcoming Peace Talks with Witkoff and Kushner
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Diplomatic Hurdles Dampen Hopes for US-Iran Talks
Reports indicated that an Iran-US deal remained out of reach despite diplomatic pushes and Qatari mediation efforts. Officials noted that Tehran and Washington were still far apart on reaching an agreement.
Sources: The Business Standard: Iran-US deal still out of reach despite diplomatic push, Iranian official says, The Korea Times: Iran, US still far apart on deal to end war as Qatar pushes mediation
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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2 Nov 2026
US-Iran Talks End Without a Deal
The chance of Steve Witkoff attending a US-Iran diplomatic meeting increased following a report that US-Iran talks ended without a deal. Additionally, news emerged regarding Gulf allies preparing for strikes on Iran and Trump meeting Netanyahu amid rising tensions.
Sources: Big News Network.com: US-Iran talks end without deal, WSJ: America’s Gulf Allies Prepare for New Round of Strikes on Iran—and the Blowback, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Trump meets Netanyahu amid rising tensions with Iran
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 39%, which means they saw about a 39 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 32% to 44%: Witkoff Discusses Peace Talks. The market probability increased following discussions involving Trump envoy Steve Witkoff regarding upcoming peace talks. Reports highlighted diplomatic efforts and coordination involving Witkoff and other officials. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.