Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 0% on 4 Nov 2026, down 28 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 basis points at its November 2026 meeting. The market resolves based on official Bank of Brazil data detailing the change in the rate target relative to its level prior to the meeting.
As the COPOM meeting begins on November 3, 2026, market sentiment is clouded by recent political developments, fiscal risks, and market turbulence following the presidential election. These conditions have prompted economists to raise their inflation and interest rate forecasts, dimming the prospects for immediate rate cuts.
Key factors influencing the decision include the official release scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, alongside ongoing concerns regarding market stability, inflation pressures, and fiscal policy in Brazil.
Sources: The Economic Times: Brazil's political uncertainty complicates rate outlook - 5 key global market themes investors will watch this week, StoneX: FX Weekly Overview (Brazil Issue), ad-hoc-news.de: Bovespa outlook: Friday close of 167,921.80 precedes Brazil holiday, FXStreet: Brazil: Political shock and fiscal risks – HSBC, www.tmgm.com: Brazil: What do political shock and fiscal risks imply? – HSBC, Valor International: Lula seeks Central Bank shake-up to accelerate rate cuts, Valor International: Market turmoil dims prospects for further Selic rate cuts, Reuters: Brazil economists raise inflation, rate forecasts after Lula reelection, Traders Union: Brazil inflation, rate outlooks rise after Lula reelection, TradingView: Brazilian Real Slips Ahead of BCB Monetary Policy Decision, PravdaReport: Brazil Rejects Rumors of State Intervention in Monetary Policy, The AgriBiz: Brazil Farmers See Bleak 2027 Outlook as Credit Worries Mount, Reuters: Brazil’s post-election market shock clouds path to cheaper credit, TradingView: Brazilian Stocks Fall Ahead of Copom Decision, Briefs Finance: Economists Raise Brazil Rate Outlook After Lula Win
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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4 Nov 2026
Bank of Brazil COPOM Meeting Conclusion
The Monetary Policy Committee will conclude its meeting and release its official statement on the target for the Selic rate, directly determining market resolution.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Brazilian Markets React to Election
Following Lula's unexpected election victory, Brazilian markets experienced a severe crash and currency depreciation. Investors subsequently focused on the economic team and fiscal policy challenges facing the upcoming presidential term.
Sources: finance.biggo.com: B3 Triggers Circuit Breaker After Lula's Re-election as Dollar Surges 12% to 5.57 Reais, Eurasia Business News: Brazilian Markets Crash 15% After Lula’s Unexpected Election, Valor International: Investors look to Lula’s economic team after market rout
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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26 Oct 2026
Brazilian Markets Plunge After Election
The chance of a rate decrease fell following a surprise election victory by Lula in Brazil. News reports highlighted that Brazilian stocks and the real plummeted significantly as a result of the political outcome.
Sources: Reuters: Brazil stocks, real tumble as Lula win shifts investor focus, Yahoo Finance: Lula’s Surprise Win Hits Spain’s Brazil Trade, Bloomberg.com: Brazil Markets Crater, Some Stocks Sink 50% After Lula Victory, 24/7 Wall St.: Brazilian Stocks Tumble as Lula Wins Surprise Fourth Term: Nu Holdings Sinks 25%, Petrobras Slides 21%, MercadoLibre Drops 15%, Financial Times: Brazil’s currency plunges most since 1999 after Lula’s election victory, FXStreet: Brazilian Real: Election shock raises losses against US Dollar - SocGen, The Globe and Mail: Brazil stocks, real nosedive as Lula win ends bullish run
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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26 Oct 2026
Brazilian Assets Plunge Following Lula's Re-Election
The probability of a rate decrease dropped significantly as Brazilian markets reacted negatively to Lula's re-election. News reports highlighted that the election results shattered expectations for fiscal consolidation, causing stocks and the real to tumble.
Sources: Reuters: Brazil stocks, real tumble as Lula win shifts investor focus, Bloomberg.com: Brazil Markets Crater, Some Stocks Sink 50% After Lula Victory, Firstpost: Brazil stocks plunge after Lula’s re-election. Why investors are worried, Seeking Alpha: Brazilian Equities: Thoughts On The Post-Election Bloodbath (NYSEARCA:EWZ), TradingKey: Brazilian Assets Sold Off: Brazil ETFs Drop Over 27% as Lula’s Re-Election Shatters Fiscal Consolidation Expectations, Bank and Oil Stocks Tumble
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Bank of Brazil decision in November?”
- No Change100%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 28 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 26% to 40%: Brazilian Markets React to Election. Following Lula's unexpected election victory, Brazilian markets experienced a severe crash and currency depreciation. Investors subsequently focused on the economic team and fiscal policy challenges facing the upcoming presidential term. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Bank of Brazil COPOM Meeting Conclusion (4 Nov 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.