Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 100% on 4 Nov 2026, up 31 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will make no change to the target for the Selic rate at its November 2026 meeting. The market resolves based on the official statement released during the meeting concluded on November 4, 2026, tracking any basis point change relative to the rate prior to the meeting.
Following recent political developments and a presidential election win by Lula, economists have raised their inflation and interest rate forecasts. Meanwhile, analysts and financial institutions point to a rate-cut pause as the central bank navigates a rocky path.
The decision is announced by the Central Bank of Brazil following its November 3-4, 2026, meeting. Reports indicate that the key rate was held steady at 13.75% following the conclusion of the COPOM meeting.
Sources: IndexBox: Lula Reelection Rattles Brazil Markets: Central Bank Rate Decision in Focus - News and Statistics, WTVB: Brazil economists raise inflation, rate forecasts after Lula reelection, FXStreet: Brazilian Real: Rate-cut pause but medium-term gains – Commerzbank, Bloomberg.com: Shock Lula Win Puts Brazil’s Central Bank on Rocky Interest Rate Path, Bloomberg.com: Brazil Holds Key Rate Steady at 13.75% After Lula’s Election Win
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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26 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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26 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Other markets in “Bank of Brazil decision in November?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 100%, which means they saw about a 100 in 100 chance. That was up 31 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.