Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
Yes at 52% on 30 Oct 2026, up 9 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Canada will increase its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points at its December 9, 2026 interest rate announcement. It will resolve based on the official statement released by the Bank of Canada.
Following a recent rate increase that brought the benchmark rate to 2.5%, analysts are divided on whether another hike will occur in December. While some experts view the latest move as pre-emptive and expect another increase as early as December, a surprise stall in August GDP data has introduced new uncertainty regarding the timing of the central bank's next step.
Sources: Philippine Canadian Inquirer: Bank of Canada raises interest rate to 2.5% as inflation pressures mount, Money.ca: Experts call BoC rate increase 'pre-emptive' and that Canadians should anticipate another hike 'as early as December', Yahoo! Finance Canada: Bank of Canada raises rate to 2.5% for first time since 2023 — economist says expect another hike by December, Mortgage Professional America: Canada’s GDP stalls, clouding Bank of Canada’s December call, BNN Bloomberg: Timing of next rate hike in question after surprise stall in August GDP, Mortgage Professional America: Economists flag Q3 downside as Canada’s GDP stalls in August
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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30 Oct 2026
Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expectations Rise
Following a recent interest rate increase by the Bank of Canada, experts have suggested that Canadians should anticipate another rate hike as early as December. Economists and financial analysts noted that this move could be part of a continuing pre-emptive strategy to address inflation pressures.
Sources: Money.ca: Experts call BoC rate increase 'pre-emptive' and that Canadians should anticipate another hike 'as early as December', Yahoo! Finance Canada: Bank of Canada raises rate to 2.5% for first time since 2023 — economist says expect another hike by December
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
Bank of Canada Rate Hike Causes Prediction Market Shift
The probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike decreased as markets reacted to news of a recent policy interest rate increase. Multiple articles confirmed that the central bank raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points.
Sources: CityNews Vancouver: What the Bank of Canada’s rate hike means for your money, Daily Hive: Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate for the first time in more than three years, Forex Factory: Kudos to the Bank of Canada, Laodong.vn: Gold prices fluctuate, under pressure after Canada's decision to raise interest rates, CBC: What the new 2.5% interest rate means for Canadians, Frequency News: Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 2.5 per cent, drawing criticism from Ford, Forex Factory: Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%, www.tmgm.com: Canadian Dollar gains after BoC rate hike as attention turns to US PCE data, EBC Financial Group: Why Did USD/CAD Fall Below 1.40 After the BoC Rate Hike?, www.tmgm.com: BoC recap: Rates rise, with a further increase on the horizon?, www.tmgm.com: Can Euro sustain gains against Canadian Dollar ahead of BoC rate decision?, www.tmgm.com: Can the Canadian Dollar hold its gains after BoC rate hike as US PCE data takes centre stage?, Pound Sterling Live: Canadian Dollar Backed by Bank of Canada's Hawks, www.tmgm.com: Canadian Dollar strengthens as BoC delivers rate hike, US PCE data in focus
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
Canada Inflation Rises and Bank of Canada Surveys Raise Rate Hike Odds
The probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike increased following reports that Canadian inflation topped 3 percent in September. Additionally, business surveys from the central bank indicated worsening sentiment and rising inflation expectations, which raised the odds of a 25 basis point rate hike consideration.
Sources: Investing.com Canada: Canada inflation surprise puts Bank of Canada in rate dilemma, finance.biggo.com: Canada Inflation Tops 3% as Gasoline Jumps 27.8%, Testing Bank of Canada's Patience, Crypto Briefing: Bank of Canada survey raises odds of 25bps rate hike consideration, Crypto Briefing: Bank of Canada surveys show rising inflation expectations, potential rate hike, Canadian Mortgage Trends: Canadian inflation rate edges up to 3.1%, core measures ease - CMT News
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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19 Oct 2026
Canada Inflation Data Influences Rate Expectations
The chance of a rate increase decreased after news coverage discussed inflation data and core pressures easing in September. Article numbers 7 and 14 provide details regarding these economic updates.
Sources: CityNews Halifax: Higher gas prices drove inflation up to 3.1% in September: StatCan, Crypto Briefing: Canada inflation in September, core pressures ease
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Bank of Canada Decision in December?”
- No Change47%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 52%, which means they saw about a 52 in 100 chance. That was up 9 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 30 Oct 2026, from 34% to 52%: Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expectations Rise. Following a recent interest rate increase by the Bank of Canada, experts have suggested that Canadians should anticipate another rate hike as early as December. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.