Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?
Yes at 47% on 30 Oct 2026, down 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Canada will make no change to the target for its overnight rate during the December interest rate announcement. It will resolve based on official Bank of Canada data showing the change in basis points resulting from the announcement on December 9, 2026.
Following a surprise interest rate increase to 2.5 percent by the Bank of Canada, economists have differing views on the next steps. While some analysts suggest that another rate hike could occur as early as December, a stall in Canada's August GDP has complicated the central bank's upcoming decision and raised questions about the timing of potential future moves.
Sources: Philippine Canadian Inquirer: Bank of Canada raises interest rate to 2.5% as inflation pressures mount, Money.ca: Experts call BoC rate increase 'pre-emptive' and that Canadians should anticipate another hike 'as early as December', Yahoo! Finance Canada: Bank of Canada raises rate to 2.5% for first time since 2023 — economist says expect another hike by December, Mortgage Professional America: Canada’s GDP stalls, clouding Bank of Canada’s December call, marketscreener.com: Flat August GDP Complicates Bank of Canada's Rate Hike Case, Say Economists, BNN Bloomberg: Timing of next rate hike in question after surprise stall in August GDP
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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30 Oct 2026
Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expectations Shift
The chance of the Bank of Canada making no rate change in December decreased following reports that August GDP stalled. Economists noted that the weaker economic data complicates the case for another rate hike, leading to questions about the timing of the next move.
Sources: marketscreener.com: Flat August GDP Complicates Bank of Canada's Rate Hike Case, Say Economists, BNN Bloomberg: Timing of next rate hike in question after surprise stall in August GDP, Mortgage Professional America: Economists flag Q3 downside as Canada’s GDP stalls in August
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
Bank of Canada Rate Hike Impacts December Outlook
The chance of the Bank of Canada making no change to the overnight rate in December dropped following recent news about the central bank raising interest rates. Multiple reports analyzed the market impact and mortgage rate increases stemming from the recent rate hike.
Sources: CTV News: Bank of Canada raises interest rate for first time in three years, Victoria Buzz: Bank of Canada increases key interest rate for first time since July 2023, Ratehub.ca: The Bank of Canada's October 2026 rate hike: What it means for mortgages and housing, Laodong.vn: Gold prices fluctuate, under pressure after Canada's decision to raise interest rates, EBC Financial Group: Why Did USD/CAD Fall Below 1.40 After the BoC Rate Hike?, IDNFinancials: Bank of Canada raises key rate to 2.5%, TradingPedia: Euro Drops vs CAD as Central Bank Paths Diverge, ad-hoc-news.de: National Bank raises prime rate as investors assess National Bank of Canada stock, Forbes: Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2026: Experts Predict Whether Interest Rates Will Drop, Forbes: Best 3-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates In Canada For 2026, crea.ca: Bank of Canada Announces First Interest Rate Hike Since 2023, Mortgage Professional America: Prime rate hits 4.70% today as big banks act on BoC hike, BNN Bloomberg: Darren Sissons’ Top Picks for Oct. 29, 2026, FXStreet: Bank of Canada: Pre-emptive hiking path – Standard Chartered, Global News: Variable mortgage rates rise following interest rate increase by the Bank of Canada
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
Bank of Canada Rate Hike Affects December Outlook
The chance of no rate change at the December meeting rose following the Bank of Canada's decision to raise its key interest rate to 2.5% in October 2026. Financial analysts and media outlets widely reported on this unexpected policy shift and its broader economic impacts.
Sources: Storeys: Bank Of Canada Raises Policy Rate To 2.5% In First Hike Since 2023, Financial Post: Bank of Canada raises interest rate to 2.5% in first hike since 2023, RBC: Bank of Canada applies preventative medicine: Hikes rates as inflation risks grow
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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2 Oct 2026
Market Rate Expectations Shift
The probability of the Bank of Canada making no change to the overnight rate increased between 2026-10-02 04:00 and 05:00 UTC. However, none of the provided news articles contain specific information to explain this price movement. No matching news was found to confirm the cause of the shift.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Bank of Canada Decision in December?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 47%, which means they saw about a 47 in 100 chance. That was down 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 30 Oct 2026, from 64% to 44%: Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expectations Shift. The chance of the Bank of Canada making no rate change in December decreased following reports that August GDP stalled. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.