Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?
Yes at 21% on 2 Nov 2026, down 13 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of 0% to 3%. The market resolves based on the absolute difference in vote percentages between the top two candidates, using the official vote totals for the Democratic and Republican nominees.
As the election approaches on November 3, 2026, final polls show a tight race between Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican candidate Ken Paxton. The contest has drawn immense national attention and hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising, with late polls indicating a close race and shifting odds.
Key figures in the race include James Talarico and Ken Paxton, who made their final campaign pitches to Houston voters ahead of the November 3 voting day. High voter turnout has been reported in major areas like Harris County, and prediction markets and pollsters continue to closely monitor the razor-thin margins.
Sources: Open Magazine: EXPLAINED | US Midterms: Why Is One Texas Senate Seat Drawing $573 Million in Ads?, Newsweek: James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton—What Final Texas Polls Show, Community Impact Newspaper: Planning to vote in Texas on Tuesday, Nov. 3? Here's what to know before heading to the polls., CBS News: Polling remains tight in Texas Senate, governor races ahead of Election Day, Kalshi News: Texas Senate odds: Kalshi gives Talarico a 75% chance as late polls trend blue, KHOU: More than 1 million Harris County voters cast ballots. What's next?, Oddschecker: How to Bet on the Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs Paxton (Odds & Promos), Houston Public Media: Paxton and Talarico make final election pitches of U.S. Senate campaign to Houston voters
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 21%, which means they saw about a 21 in 100 chance. That was down 13 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.