Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
Yes at 34% on 2 Nov 2026, up 8 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of 3% to 6%. The market resolves based on the absolute percentage difference between the valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates in the November 3, 2026 election, relying on official nominees from the Democratic and Republican parties.
As Election Day approaches on November 3, 2026, final polls show the Democratic candidate holding a lead over the Republican candidate in the high-stakes Texas Senate race. Prediction markets and news outlets note intense voter attention on the contest as part of the broader 2026 midterm elections.
Key figures in the race include Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican candidate Ken Paxton. Local issues such as gas prices and broader demographic trends are reported to be swaying voters as the final hours before the election tick down.
Sources: USA Today: Final poll sets stage for Texas Senate race before Election Day, Community Impact Newspaper: Planning to vote in Texas on Tuesday, Nov. 3? Here's what to know before heading to the polls., The Washington Post: Ken Paxton's last stand to keep a Texas Senate seat for Republicans, NBC News: Texas Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results, Dallas News: Texas Senate race: Gas prices frustrate, but other issues sway voters, El Paso Times: Talarico posts best Texas US Senate race poll lead yet over Paxton, FOX 7 Austin: Talarico holds lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate race poll with Election Day just hours away, NewsCord: New York Times/Siena Poll Shows James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race: 11 outlets compared, CBS News: Why some Texas Democrats are forecasting a "Hispanic hurricane" in midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
1 Nov 2026
State Polls Boost Democratic Senate Chances in Texas
The price of the prediction market moved as new state polling data was released. YouGov and other sources reported Democratic leads and competitive races across key U.S. Senate contests, including Texas.
Sources: YouGov: 2026 U.S. elections: YouGov's state polling, Nacionale: New YouGov state polls: Democrats ahead in seven Senate races, and a tie in Nebraska
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
29 Oct 2026
Polls Show Tight Texas Senate Race
Several new polls released throughout the day showed a tight race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate election. These reports highlighted a slim lead for the Democratic candidate, drawing significant attention as Election Day approaches.
Sources: CNN: CNN Poll: Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race, Fox News: Maine, Kansas Senate races neck and neck as Democrats lead in Texas, Michigan, poll shows, FOX 26 Houston: Talarico holds slim lead over Paxton in new poll as Election Day approaches, KHOU: New Texas poll reveals tight races for Senate, governor, USA Today: New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final days, Houston Chronicle: How close is the race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton? See the major polls.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 34%, which means they saw about a 34 in 100 chance. That was up 8 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 1 Nov 2026, from 26% to 34%: State Polls Boost Democratic Senate Chances in Texas. The price of the prediction market moved as new state polling data was released. YouGov and other sources reported Democratic leads and competitive races across key U.S. Senate contests, including Texas. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.