Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 5% on 4 Nov 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 4 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of 9% to 12%. The market resolves based on the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages received by the first-place and second-place candidates, according to official election results.
Following the November 3, 2026 election, reporting indicates that Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton to flip a Texas Senate seat blue amid broader Democratic gains in the state.
Articles noted that the election took place on November 3, 2026, with widespread shifts toward Democrats across various counties and state contests.
Sources: Houston Chronicle: Where did Democrats flip Republican-held seats in Texas?, Houston Public Media: Republican mid-decade redistricting misses the mark in Texas, Austin American-Statesman: Who turned Texas blue? Explore which counties moved left in the Senate race, NBC News: Democrat James Talarico turns Texas Senate seat blue, defeating Ken Paxton
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
4 Nov 2026
Texas Senate Election Margin Changes
The prediction market price moved significantly following election results. Articles reported on the Texas Senate race outcome and voter shifts in the state.
Sources: Haaretz: For Texas Jews, Talarico's Senate win offers hope against Christian nationalism, Bloomberg.com: Texas Turns Blue in Stunning Rebuke of Donald Trump, Elon Musk and GOP, Dallas News: Cornyn’s warning about Paxton proved true in Texas Senate blowout, BBC: How voter shifts in Texas helped elect a Democratic senator and governor
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
4 Nov 2026
Democratic Victory in Texas Senate Election
The probability of the Democratic candidate winning the Texas Senate election by 9%-12% surged as election results came in. Reports confirmed that Democrat James Talarico won the Texas Senate race, turning the state blue.
Sources: The Times: How Democrat James Talarico won his Senate race and turned Texas blue, Houston Chronicle: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico: See how your neighbor voted in Texas' U.S. Senate election, Democracy Now!: “The Earth Shook Last Night”: Talarico Wins Senate, Hinojosa Becomes First Latina Governor in Texas
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 5%, which means they saw about a 5 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 45% to 6%: Texas Senate Election Margin Changes. The prediction market price moved significantly following election results. Articles reported on the Texas Senate race outcome and voter shifts in the state. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.