Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 26% on 4 Nov 2026, down 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 4 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House seat for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate according to a consensus of credible reporting or the official Federal Election Commission results.
Following the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, vote counting is underway and the race remains too close to call.
The contest features a tight race between Representative Eli Crane and Jonathan Nez, with updates and results continuing to develop across Arizona congressional districts.
Sources: KJZZ: Nez, Crane locked in tight race in Arizona’s CD2, KTAR News 92.3 FM: Arizona congressional district election results: Who won or is ahead in the 9 House races?, KNAU: Crane-Nez race still too close to call, KTAR News 92.3 FM: Rep. Eli Crane, Jonathan Nez neck and neck in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, AP News: 2026 U.S. House Election Results
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
AZ-02 Race Remains Tight
The price for the Democratic Party winning the AZ-02 seat dropped after early reports showed candidates Crane and Nez in a tight race. Subsequent updates confirmed that the contest remained too close to call as votes were counted.
Sources: Arizona Daily Sun: Crane and Nez in tight race early on for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, KJZZ: Nez, Crane locked in tight race in Arizona’s CD2, KNAU: Crane-Nez race still too close to call
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Arizona Election Results and House Race Updates
Early election results showed a tight race between Crane and Nez in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. As vote counts continued, news outlets published live election blogs and updates regarding legislative races and the broader control of Congress.
Sources: AZ Luminaria: Live: Arizona election results for Pima County, Tucson as voters rebuke Trump, back Democrats to control Congress, Arizona Daily Sun: Crane and Nez in tight race early on for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, KJZZ: Nez, Crane locked in tight race in Arizona’s CD2, Arizona Capitol Times: Election Live Blog: Results, updates, what to know, Arizona Capitol Times: Democrats hold edge in state legislative races
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “AZ-02 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 26%, which means they saw about a 26 in 100 chance. That was down 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 86% to 70%: AZ-02 Race Remains Tight. The price for the Democratic Party winning the AZ-02 seat dropped after early reports showed candidates Crane and Nez in a tight race. Subsequent updates confirmed that the contest remained too close to call as votes were counted. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).