Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?
Yes at 30% on 28 Oct 2026, up 10 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 22 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House seat for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The market will resolve based on the official election results or a consensus of credible reporting following the November 3, 2026, election.
As the election approaches, the NC-09 race has emerged as one of the most expensive congressional contests in the country. Reports indicate that the district was redrawn by Republicans to favor their party, though recent national polling shows a complex landscape for both major parties heading into the final days of the campaign.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The final outcome will be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the winning candidate or their stated intent to caucus with a party if they are not affiliated with the Democrats or Republicans.
Sources: CBS 17: Republicans redrew this NC district to win. Now it’s one of the country’s most expensive House races, NPR: Democrats still poised to make gains, but poll shows warning signs for just how many, Raleigh News & Observer: Millions are riding on NC’s midterm races. What do the online betting odds say?, NBC News: North Carolina Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Democratic Party Odds Rise in North Carolina Midterms
Prediction market odds for the Democratic Party winning the NC-09 House seat increased following reports on early voting in the 2026 midterm elections and coverage of prediction market trends in North Carolina. Articles discussing voter participation and candidate standings were published around the time of the price shift.
Sources: Forbes: North Carolina Elections: Who’s Leading In Prediction Markets?, The New York Times: Tracking the Early Vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Democratic momentum in North Carolina districts
The increase in the market's 'Yes' probability follows reporting on potential Democratic competitiveness in North Carolina districts. A local news report highlighted growing momentum for the party in traditionally Republican-leaning areas as the election approaches.
Sources: WRAL: Can Democrats compete in deep-red NC districts? Momentum gives some hope as Election Day nears
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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22 Oct 2026
Democratic Odds Decline in North Carolina House Race
The probability of a Democratic victory in the NC-09 House race decreased following reports highlighting the uphill battle faced by the Democratic candidate. While some coverage noted Republican nervousness regarding North Carolina races, the specific focus on the Democratic candidate as an underdog likely contributed to the shift in market sentiment.
Sources: Washington Examiner: North Carolina Democratic underdog hopes a blue wave can take down House GOP campaign chief, Yahoo: Republicans seem unusually nervous about some NC congressional races | Opinion
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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22 Oct 2026
Democratic Party NC-09 Market Odds Increase
The increase in the Democratic Party's odds for the NC-09 House seat follows broader reporting on shifting voter demographics and national party momentum. Articles published shortly before the price jump highlighted a trend of Hispanic voters moving away from the Republican party and general Democratic efforts to regain control of Congress. These reports contributed to a changing outlook on the midterm election landscape.
Sources: The New York Times: Hispanic Voters, Abandoning Trump, Are Transforming the Midterm Map, LiveNOW from FOX: Democrats look to take back the House and Senate
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 30%, which means they saw about a 30 in 100 chance. That was up 10 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 29% to 38%: Democratic Party Odds Rise in North Carolina Midterms. Prediction market odds for the Democratic Party winning the NC-09 House seat increased following reports on early voting in the 2026 midterm elections and coverage of prediction market trends in North Carolina. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).