Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 98% on 4 Nov 2026, up 57 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 30 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House seat for Nevada's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official federal election results.
As election results roll in following the November 3, 2026 voting, reports indicate a notable blue wave in Nevada. Coverage highlights a strong Democratic performance across the state, including victories in major races.
Recent updates specifically point to Teresa Benitez-Thompson flipping a Northern Nevada House seat during the 2026 midterms. The election outcomes continue to be tracked through live updates from various news sources and election dashboards.
Sources: This Is Reno: Track Washoe County election results with This Is Reno’s dashboard, Carson Now: Carson City Election Results 2026, The Nevada Independent: Legislative - General Election Results | 2026, The Nevada Independent: Live updates: Nevada's 2026 election results, KRXI2: ELECTION 2026: Lombardo vs Ford for governor, Flippo vs Benitez-Thompson for Congress, News From The States: Warner wins fourth term , Luria ousts Kiggans in VA-02 as 2 U.S. House races remain undecided, Nevada Appeal: 2026 General Election: Live updates and results from Carson City, Ventura County Star: 2026 Nevada Election: Live Results & Maps, Reno Gazette Journal: See photos from Nevada Democrats watch party on Election Day, WCAX: Democrat Aaron Ford defeats Republican incumbent to become Nevada’s first Black governor, OpenSecrets: Nevada District 02 2012 U.S. House Race Industries, The Nevada Independent: A blue bloodbath: 10 big takeaways from Nevada's 2026 midterms, Nevada Current: A harsh election for Nevada Republicans: More results, The Nevada Independent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson flips Northern Nevada House seat for first time in blue wave, Reno Gazette Journal: Nevada election's blue wave sweeps in Ford, maybe Benitez-Thompson
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
3 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
30 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Other markets in “NV-02 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 98%, which means they saw about a 98 in 100 chance. That was up 57 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).