Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 89% on 7 Nov 2026, up 85 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 4 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Democratic Party will win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%. It resolves based on the official vote totals published by the U.S. Clerk of the House, calculated as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for Democratic House candidates and Republican House candidates from the 50 states.
Following the November 3, 2026 elections, results show significant Democratic gains, with reports indicating Democrats have flipped over 40 House seats and achieved major victories.
The election results and vote margins continue to be tallied by election officials and analyzed through publications by outlets such as the Associated Press, CBS News, and the New York Times.
Sources: The New York Times: 2026 Midterms Data: How Democrats Won the Largest House Majority Since 2008, CBS News: These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yet, CBS News: Democrats have now flipped over 40 House seats. Here are all the districts that changed control in the midterms., AP News: 2026 U.S. House Election Results
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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6 Nov 2026
Democrats Secure Large House Majority in Midterm Elections
Following the 2026 midterm elections, news outlets reported that the Democratic Party achieved a historic House majority and a large wave of victories. Articles highlighted how the actual margins of victory exceeded expectations and pollsters' initial estimates.
Sources: Yahoo: Democrats' 2026 midterm rout was big — really big. Here are the numbers that prove it., CNN: Democrats’ House majority is trending toward historic, Financial Times: Why pollsters underestimated the size of the Democrats’ US midterm ‘blue wave’, Straight Arrow: Why polls and markets got the midterm winners right but the margins wrong, The New York Times: 2026 Midterms Data: How Democrats Won the Largest House Majority Since 2008
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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6 Nov 2026
Democrats Secure Large Majority in 2026 Midterm Elections
The chance of the Democratic Party winning the popular vote by between 14% and 16% rose significantly as midterm election results came in. Multiple news sources reported that Democrats achieved a major electoral victory and a historic House majority. Analysts and media outlets highlighted the substantial size of the Democratic win across various congressional districts.
Sources: The New York Times: Midterm Elections Live Updates: Democrats Project Power as G.O.P. Reels in a Reordered Washington, U.S. News & World Report: How Democrats Flipped Congress – in Maps and Charts, Colorado Public Radio: Jessica Killin flips Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, becomes first Democrat to win, Yahoo: Democrats' 2026 midterm rout was big — really big. Here are the numbers that prove it., CNN: Democrats’ House majority is trending toward historic, Financial Times: Why pollsters underestimated the size of the Democrats’ US midterm ‘blue wave’, NPR: How North Carolina Democrats flipped several House seats in historically GOP districts, Arizona Mirror: Mendoza wins congressional seat from Republican Ciscomani, The New York Times: 2026 Midterms Data: How Democrats Won the Largest House Majority Since 2008
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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5 Nov 2026
Democrats Outperform Expectations in House Midterms
The price for the Democratic popular vote margin falling between 14% and 16% dropped as election results revealed a much larger Democratic wave than anticipated. Articles reported that polls missed a massive electoral tsunami rather than a standard wave, shifting vote margins beyond the 14% to 16% bracket.
Sources: The Guardian: Democrats’ blue wave and a bad night for Trump: key US midterms takeaways, The Hill: Polls saw the Democratic wave. Here’s why they missed the tsunami, Silver Bulletin: After an extraordinary wave, what comes next?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Democrats Win Control of US House
The chance of Democrats winning the popular vote by between 14% and 16% in the 2026 midterm elections increased after major news outlets reported that Democrats won control of the U.S. House. Publications including The Guardian and PBS announced that Democrats secured control of Congress in a major wave following the election.
Sources: The Guardian: US voters rebuke Trump as Democrats win control of Congress in ‘blue wave’ | US midterm elections 2026, PBS: Democrats win control of U.S. House, in major rebuke to Trump
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%”?
On 7 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 89%, which means they saw about a 89 in 100 chance. That was up 85 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 6 Nov 2026, from 46% to 75%: Democrats Secure Large House Majority in Midterm Elections. Following the 2026 midterm elections, news outlets reported that the Democratic Party achieved a historic House majority and a large wave of victories. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.