Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 6% on 4 Nov 2026, down 38 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 28 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House seat for Virginia's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the official party affiliation of the candidate who ultimately wins the seat, according to a consensus of credible reporting or official federal election results.
Following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, the race in Virginia's 5th District remains closely contested as votes continue to be tallied. Republican candidate John McGuire has claimed victory in the district, while Democratic challenger Tom Perriello has not conceded, stating that the race is too close to call and could take days to resolve.
Sources: Cardinal News: Griffith, Cline win reelection. McGuire declares victory over Perriello in still-close race., cbs19news.com: McGuire claims victory in 5th, but Perriello hopeful, cbs19news.com: Coleman: 5th District race could take days to call, Cville Right Now: McGuire declares victory in 5th, while Perriello says ‘Welcome to overtime’, The Daily Progress: McGuire holds to slim victory over Perriello in Virginia's 5th District, WTVR.com: McGuire declares victory in Virginia's 5th House District; but Perriello says it's too close to call
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
28 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Other markets in “VA-05 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 6%, which means they saw about a 6 in 100 chance. That was down 38 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).