Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Yes at 10% on 29 Oct 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official winner called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or through official certification if those sources do not agree.
Recent polling shows the Republican nominee leading the Democratic candidate Angie Nixon in the race. Meanwhile, the campaigns have recently focused their efforts on areas like Jacksonville.
The key candidates include Democratic nominee Angie Nixon and her Republican opponent, alongside other developments such as Nixon addressing past comments and navigating campaign controversies.
Sources: Spectrum News 13: Nixon, Moody take Senate campaigns to Jacksonville, We Got This Covered: Why did Meta take down Florida Dem Senate candidate Angie Nixon's Instagram account?, Florida Daily: Florida Election Poll: Donalds Leads Jolly by 6 Points, Moody Ahead of Nixon by 8, Florida Daily: Florida Senate Candidate Angie Nixon Walks Back Cuba Comments Amid Backlash From Republicans and Democrats, Spectrum News 13: Donalds, Jolly get a little help from their political peers on Wednesday, NBC News: Florida Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Florida Senate Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 10%, which means they saw about a 10 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.