Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes at 68% on 28 Oct 2026, up 3 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas. The market relies on race calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official state certification if those outlets do not all agree.
With just six days remaining until the midterm elections, candidates have accumulated massive campaign war chests through out-of-state donations. Recent polls show the Texas Senate contest is tight as voters weigh issues like corruption.
Democratic candidate James Talarico has been actively campaigning across the state, holding recent rallies in Lubbock and Amarillo. Meanwhile, national figures like Donald Trump and Barack Obama are rallying voters as both parties push through the final stretch of the campaign.
Sources: NPR: Senate candidates built up massive campaign war chests with out-of-state donations, NBC News: Midterms 2026: Congress Polls and More, Anadolu Ajansı: FACTBOX - 8 key US Senate races in battle for control of Congress, NBC News: Tracking the 2026 Early Vote: Midterm Elections, Deseret News: New poll finds corruption on voters’ minds. In Texas, it could decide the race for U.S. Senate, The Texas Tribune: The politics of Texas’ suburbs, explained in six charts, The Lufkin Daily News: Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks to a crowd at a rally featuring fellow Democratic candidates Oct. 27, 2026, at the Fiesta Center in Lubbock, Texas., Amarillo Tribune: Talarico Holds Rally in Amarillo Ahead of Election, The Washington Post: The seven races that will decide control of the Senate, 930 WFMD Free Talk: Deep in Trump country, a new generation reveals the divide behind Texas’ tight Senate race, Al Jazeera: US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally, MultiState: Texas 2026 Election Results, WPEC: Trump, Talarico rally voters in Texas Senate race as midterm elections approach, The Times: Texas Senate race polls: who will win the 2026 election?, WSJ: Can James Talarico Convince Texas That He’s a Moderate?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 68%, which means they saw about a 68 in 100 chance. That was up 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.