Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the European Central Bank will announce a rate increase of 50 basis points or more during its October 2026 meeting. It resolves based on the official change in the deposit facility rate announced by the ECB.
Ahead of the decision, analysts and market participants widely expect the ECB to hold interest rates steady rather than announce an increase. Financial reports note that traders are largely looking ahead to potential policy moves in December.
The decision is scheduled for release on October 29, 2026, as the central bank navigates ongoing economic factors including consumer inflation pressures.
Sources: TradingView: ECB Poised to Hold Rates as Traders Look Ahead to December, Demócrata: The ECB will postpone the next rate hike to December and will keep rates unchanged this Thursday, according to experts, www.tmgm.com: European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates despite high inflation pressures, FXStreet: ECB is expected to stand pat on interest rates despite rising consumer inflation
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “ECB Interest Rates: October 2026”
- No change100%
- 25 bps increase0%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.