Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Yes at 100% on 29 Oct 2026, up 4 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 6 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the European Central Bank will announce no change to its deposit facility rate at its October 2026 meeting. The market resolves based on the official ECB statement released on October 28 or 29, 2026.
Ahead of the decision, markets widely expect the European Central Bank to stand pat on interest rates and remain on hold, despite rising consumer inflation and political risks.
Key factors influencing the backdrop include easing bond yields and broader market focus shifting from the Federal Reserve to the ECB. Additionally, reports indicate that ECB President Lagarde is set to step down in February.
Sources: FXStreet: ECB, BoJ expected to remain hawkishly on hold, Reuters: European shares inch up ahead of ECB as earnings remain in focus, FXStreet: ECB is expected to stand pat on interest rates despite rising consumer inflation, BigGo Finance: Bund Yields Ease From Weekly High as ECB Hold Looms, Fed Dissent Steepens U.S. Curve, Bloomberg: Lagarde Will Step Down as ECB President in February, CNBC: ECB President Lagarde to stand down in Februrary
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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6 Oct 2026
ECB Interest Rate Expectations Shift Amid European Debt Concerns
The probability that the European Central Bank will announce no change in interest rates decreased between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC on October 6, 2026. News reports around that time highlighted mounting concerns regarding French bond contagion fears and broader questions about whether the ECB might need to intervene to support France amid ongoing debt troubles.
Sources: Reuters: French bond contagion fears are rattling the euro, EUobserver: How bad does it have to get for the ECB to save France?, POLITICO.eu: France’s debt troubles stir memories of the euro crisis
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “ECB Interest Rates: October 2026”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 100%, which means they saw about a 100 in 100 chance. That was up 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 6 Oct 2026, from 93% to 64%: ECB Interest Rate Expectations Shift Amid European Debt Concerns. The probability that the European Central Bank will announce no change in interest rates decreased between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC on October 6, 2026. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.