Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will decrease the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its December 2026 meeting. The resolution will be based on the official FOMC statement released after the scheduled meeting on December 8-9, 2026.
Following the Federal Reserve meeting in late October 2026, officials kept interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4 percent in a 10-2 vote. Analysts and market observers are now debating whether persistent inflation will prompt the central bank to implement a rate hike or hold steady at the upcoming December meeting.
The key factors to watch include upcoming inflation data and economic updates leading up to the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, where Federal Reserve leadership and committee members will make their final decision on the target rate range.
Sources: RealEstateNews.com: Divided Fed holds rates steady as investors bet on December hike, The Lane Report: Fed holds interest rates steady, leaving December increase in play, The Daily Beast: Trump Suffers Blow as Fed Blows Off Interest Rate Cut, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027, Reuters: Wall Street ends higher as Fed holds key rate steady, focus turns to earnings, CryptoTicker.io: Fed holds rates at 3.75 to 4 percent, two wanted a hike, Admirals: Fed Rate Decision: Hawkish Hold at 3.75%-4% in 10-2 Vote, Aktualita.co: The Fed Announcement: Interest Rates Held, December Hike Looms, Free Press Journal: US Fed Holds Interest Rates At 3.75%-4%, Gives No Clear Signal On December Hike, ing think: Fed holds rates steady despite inflation being too high, Reuters: Why a Fed rate hike is likely coming in December, investingLive: Much ado about nothing? Fed chair Warsh talks up a storm but December rate hike bets barely budge, Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike, bloomingbit: Warsh Holds Fed Rate at 3.75%-4% Despite High Inflation, Boosting Odds of December Hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
-
9 Dec 2026
December 2026 FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its official statement on interest rates following the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, which will directly determine the market outcome.
Source: Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026
-
Before the December 2026 meeting
Inflation and Economic Data Releases
Upcoming reports on inflation and economic conditions could alter expectations regarding whether the Fed will lower rates, raise them, or keep them steady in December.
Source: bloomingbit: Warsh Holds Fed Rate at 3.75%-4% Despite High Inflation, Boosting Odds of December Hike
-
Before the December 2026 meeting
Federal Reserve Official Statements
Further comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy and inflation could provide clearer signals on the likelihood of a rate decrease.
Source: Free Press Journal: US Fed Holds Interest Rates At 3.75%-4%, Gives No Clear Signal On December Hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Fed Decision in December?”
- 25 bps increase78%
- No change20%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: December 2026 FOMC Meeting (9 Dec 2026); Inflation and Economic Data Releases; Federal Reserve Official Statements. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.