Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Yes at 1% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 50 basis points or more following its January 2027 meeting. The market resolves based on the official statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee after its scheduled meeting on January 26-27, 2027, looking at the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
Recent news indicates that the Federal Reserve has recently held interest rates steady at a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, with discussions surrounding persistent inflation and potential future rate paths.
Sources: Seeking Alpha: Federal Reserve holds rate at 3.75%-4.00%, with two dissents, CNBC: Fed leaves rates unchanged: What it means for credit cards, mortgages, auto loans and savings accounts, CryptoTicker.io: Fed holds rates at 3.75 to 4 percent, two wanted a hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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3 Nov 2026
Midterm Elections
The U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, could influence future fiscal and economic policy discussions, impacting the Federal Reserve's rate path.
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27 Jan 2027
January FOMC Meeting Statement
The FOMC statement scheduled for the conclusion of the January 26-27, 2027 meeting will officially determine the rate change and resolve the market.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Fed Decision in January?”
- No change67%
- 25 bps increase30%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Midterm Elections (3 Nov 2026); January FOMC Meeting Statement (27 Jan 2027). Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.