Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes at 78% on 29 Oct 2026, up 7 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 29 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will follow a specific sequence of rate decisions—hike, pause, and then hike—across three consecutive FOMC meetings in September, October, and December of 2026. The market resolves based on the official post-meeting statements issued by the Federal Open Market Committee.
Following the conclusion of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it has left interest rates unchanged despite noting that inflation remains elevated. Analysts and markets are currently assessing the central bank's muddy outlook and its gradual approach to monetary policy.
The market relies on decisions made during the September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9 meetings, with the final resolution occurring after the market closes on December 9, 2026.
Sources: The Washington Post: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, CNBC: Dollar steady after Fed hold leaves rate path murky, The New York Times: Fed Meeting Live Updates: Interest Rates Hold Steady Despite 'Elevated' Inflation, Reuters: Fed highlights economic strength but muddies outlook for Treasuries, WSJ: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Digest Fed Meet, Focus Shifts to ECB, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027, The New York Times: In Moving Gradually, Fed Risks Having to Play Catch-Up to Quell Inflation
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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8 Dec 2026
December FOMC Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its final scheduled meeting of the year on December 8-9 to decide on interest rates, directly determining the final outcome of this market.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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16 Oct 2026
Fed Chair Warsh Remarks Affect Rate Expectations
The chance of a Fed Hike-Pause-Hike sequence rose after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at a conference. News reports noted that traders bet on an interest-rate hold or that rate-hike bets faded as Warsh avoided giving rate hints.
Sources: New York Post: Traders bet on October interest-rate hold after Kevin Warsh is tight-lipped at conference, Investing.com: US Dollar Slides as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade Despite Hot Inflation, TradingView: Bitcoin price steadies around $82K after Fed’s Warsh avoids rate-hike hints, Benzinga: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Keeps October Rate Hike in Limbo, Warns AI Could Trigger a ‘Very Bumpy’ Transition, PBS: Fed chair Warsh says price stability is key but shies away from signals about rates
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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14 Oct 2026
Inflation Data Impacts Fed Rate Expectations
Hot U.S. inflation data released around this period boosted bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. This economic news led market observers to reassess the likelihood of the Fed's upcoming interest rate decisions.
Sources: CNBC: Gold drops over 1% as hot U.S. inflation data boosts Fed hike bets, BBC: US inflation rises more than expected - here's what is happening with prices
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Weak U.S. Jobs Data Shifts Federal Reserve Outlook
The chance of the Federal Reserve implementing a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence rose following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Multiple reports indicated that the cooler jobs growth reduced market bets on immediate further rate hikes and sparked discussions regarding monetary policy pauses and timing. Consequently, investors reduced certain rate hike expectations while reassessing the interest rate outlook.
Sources: RealEstateNews.com: Fed rate hike less likely after job gains miss the mark, WSJ: Dollar Falls After Weak U.S. Jobs Data, Boosting Swiss Franc Further, The Times: Weak US jobs growth sparks fall in government borrowing costs, Reuters: TSX pares weekly decline as investors reduce Fed rate hike bets, ing think: Cooler US jobs growth supports a Federal Reserve pause in October, U.S. News & World Report: Weak 29K Jobs Report Raises Questions Over Interest Rate Policy | National News | U.S. News, WSJ: U.S. Stocks Rise as Jobs Report Tempers Rate Outlook
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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29 Sep 2026
Fed Official Signals No Urgency for Rate Hikes
The chance of a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence increased after a Federal Reserve official noted there is no urgency for the next rate hike. Following this commentary, traders adjusted their expectations regarding the timing of future policy moves. This perspective contributed to the upward shift in prediction market odds.
Sources: Forex Factory: Fed’s Williams sees no urgency for next Fed rate hike
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 78%, which means they saw about a 78 in 100 chance. That was up 7 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 16 Oct 2026, from 60% to 69%: Fed Chair Warsh Remarks Affect Rate Expectations. The chance of a Fed Hike-Pause-Hike sequence rose after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at a conference. News reports noted that traders bet on an interest-rate hold or that rate-hike bets faded as Warsh avoided giving rate hints. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: December FOMC Meeting (8 Dec 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm