Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes at 21% on 29 Oct 2026, up 3 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 14 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will follow a sequence of a rate hike, a rate pause, and another rate pause across its three policy meetings held in September, October, and December 2026. Resolution depends on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate announced in the official FOMC statements following each of these scheduled meetings.
Following the conclusion of the October 27-28 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady while inflation continues to run high, marking a pause for October. Markets are now assessing the likelihood of the final decision at the upcoming December 8-9 meeting, with ongoing debates around whether the central bank will keep rates unchanged or consider a hike.
Sources: The National: US Fed holds interest rates steady as inflation runs hot, CNBC: Dollar steady after Fed hold leaves rate path murky, ing think: Fed holds rates steady despite inflation being too high, The Korea Times: Fed's hawkish hold strengthens case for BOK's hike in November, investingLive: Much ado about nothing? Fed chair Warsh talks up a storm but December rate hike bets barely budge, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027, Economies.com: Gold and silver fall as Fed signals keep December rate hike expectations alive
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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8 Dec 2026
FOMC December Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on December 8-9, 2026, and issue a statement on interest rates that will determine whether the final step of the Hike-Pause-Pause sequence occurs.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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14 Oct 2026
Fed Rate Hike-Pause-Pause Market Odds Drop
The chance of the Federal Reserve executing a hike-pause-pause sequence decreased after hotter September inflation data prompted expectations of a rate hike instead of a pause. Major financial institutions like Citi revised their forecasts to anticipate rate action following the inflation surprise.
Sources: The Straits Times: US inflation heats up in September; Fed rate hike in October back on table, Yahoo Finance: Fed Interest Rate Hike Seems More Likely This Month After Alarming Inflation Data, Reuters: Citi turns hawkish on Fed after inflation surprise, expects December rate hike, bloomingbit: Hotter US Inflation Still Leaves 66% Odds of Fed Hold This Month; December Hike Favored
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 21%, which means they saw about a 21 in 100 chance. That was up 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 14 Oct 2026, from 20% to 9%: Fed Rate Hike-Pause-Pause Market Odds Drop. The chance of the Federal Reserve executing a hike-pause-pause sequence decreased after hotter September inflation data prompted expectations of a rate hike instead of a pause. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: FOMC December Meeting (8 Dec 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm