Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes at 78% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points following its December 2026 meeting. The market resolves based on the official FOMC statement released after the meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, looking at the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
Following the Federal Reserve's meeting, the central bank held interest rates steady with the target range at 3.75% to 4% amid ongoing inflation concerns. However, market analysts and observers are already looking ahead and adjusting their expectations for a potential rate hike at the upcoming December meeting.
The crucial upcoming dates are December 8-9, 2026, when the FOMC will convene and issue its official rate decision statement. Investors and markets continue to monitor incoming economic data and Fed signals regarding inflation and economic strength to gauge the likelihood of a December rate increase.
Sources: The Washington Post: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, Aktualita.co: The Fed Announcement: Interest Rates Held, December Hike Looms, The National: US Fed holds interest rates steady as inflation runs hot, Adda247: US Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates at 3.75%-4% Amid Inflation Concerns, Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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9 Dec 2026
FOMC December Meeting Statement
The Federal Open Market Committee will issue its official statement and decision regarding the target federal funds rate, which will directly determine the resolution of this market.
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Before the December 2026 meeting
Expectations of a Rate Hike
Market commentary and economic analysis leading up to the December meeting could shift expectations regarding whether the Fed will implement a 25 basis point rate increase.
Source: BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike, The New York Times: In Moving Gradually, Fed Risks Having to Play Catch-Up to Quell Inflation
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Fed Decision in December?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 78%, which means they saw about a 78 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: FOMC December Meeting Statement (9 Dec 2026); Expectations of a Rate Hike. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.