Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Yes at 30% on 29 Oct 2026, down 8 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 14 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. It will resolve based on the official FOMC statement indicating any change to the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
Recent reports indicate that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged during its latest decision, maintaining a hawkish hold as inflation and broader economic factors continue to influence monetary policy. Meanwhile, global central banks are showing divergent paths, with the Bank of Canada recently implementing a rate hike.
Market participants and analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, geopolitical tensions, and global market reactions as they assess the likelihood of future rate adjustments leading into early 2027.
Sources: CNBC: Fed leaves rates unchanged: What it means for credit cards, mortgages, auto loans and savings accounts, NTD News: Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Reuters: Canadian dollar strengthens, bond yields rise after BoC's rate hike, Vietnam.vn: The Bank of Canada raised interest rates, signaling further tightening., The Korea Times: Fed's hawkish hold strengthens case for BOK's hike in November, Livemint: US Fed FOMC pauses interest rates: Can Nifty bulls take charge or will RBI hike spoil the rally? Investors guide
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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27 Jan 2027
FOMC January Meeting Statement
The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to issue its official statement following its January 26-27 meeting, which will directly determine whether the target federal funds rate was increased by 25 basis points.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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22 Oct 2026
Fed Interest Rate Expectations Shift
The probability of a 25 basis point rate increase by the Federal Reserve in January 2027 decreased between 2026-10-22 13:00 and 19:00 UTC. Commentary and expert forecasts regarding Federal Reserve interest rates were published during this period, influencing market sentiment.
Sources: Norada Real Estate Investments: Will Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates in October 2026: Expert Forecast, Norada Real Estate Investments: Interest Rate Predictions for Next Week: October 27–28, 2026
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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14 Oct 2026
Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise on Inflation News
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike increased as new economic reports showed higher-than-expected inflation. Major news outlets reported that surging inflation and hot price data are raising market expectations for a rate increase.
Sources: HousingWire: Hotter inflation could force Fed to move rate hike plans to October, MarketWatch: What to expect at the next Fed meeting now that rate-hike odds are rising, WLUK: Inflation surges as Iran war drives prices higher across economy, Yahoo Finance: Inflation rises in the latest report. Will that move mortgage rates even higher?, BBC: US inflation rises more than expected - here's what is happening with prices
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Fed Decision in January?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 30%, which means they saw about a 30 in 100 chance. That was down 8 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 22 Oct 2026, from 38% to 27%: Fed Interest Rate Expectations Shift. The probability of a 25 basis point rate increase by the Federal Reserve in January 2027 decreased between 2026-10-22 13:00 and 19:00 UTC. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: FOMC January Meeting Statement (27 Jan 2027). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.