Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 52% on 5 Nov 2026, up 4 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
28 Oct 2026
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady
The chance of a rate increase dropped after the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady. Several news reports confirmed the decision and noted expectations for future cuts.
Sources: ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as midterm elections loom, Fox Business: Federal Reserve makes interest rate decision ahead of midterms, CNBC: Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
27 Oct 2026
Fed rate hike odds rise ahead of meeting
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, news reports noted that while the central bank was widely expected to hold rates steady, Fed chief Warsh might point the way to more hikes. Following these discussions, the probability of a 25 basis point increase shifted.
Sources: CNBC: Fed expected to hold rates steady, but Warsh may point way to more hikes, The Business Times: Hike or hold: Fed chief Warsh faces another tough choice on rate decision
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 52%, which means they saw about a 52 in 100 chance. That was up 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 57% to 43%: Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady. The chance of a rate increase dropped after the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady. Several news reports confirmed the decision and noted expectations for future cuts. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 18 Mar 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.