Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes at 62% on 30 Oct 2026, up 3 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will follow a sequence of a pause, a hike, and another pause over its next three policy meetings ending in January 2027. The market resolves based on the official post-meeting statements released by the Federal Open Market Committee.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a 10-2 vote at its October meeting, choosing a pause while declining to offer forward guidance. Following this decision, market expectations for a rate hike at the upcoming December meeting have surged significantly.
Key factors include the upcoming FOMC meetings scheduled for October, December, and January, as well as evolving inflation data and interest rate probabilities discussed by market analysts.
Sources: TradingKey: Gold Price Forecast: Why Are Gold Prices Still Falling After the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes? September PCE May Determine Gold's Direction, CryptoSlate: Fed’s divided rate decision threatens Bitcoin’s comeback as December hike looms, CNBC: Analysis: Kevin Warsh is keeping Wall Street guessing. It may be his most powerful tool, Finimize: Wall Street Looked Past A Fed Pause And Back To December, Investment Week: US Federal Reserve holds rates with December hike still on the table, BigGo Finance: Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in 10-2 Vote; Warsh Refuses Forward Guidance as December Hike Odds Surge to 85%, Univest: Nifty Outlook After Fed Pause: Will an RBI Hike Spoil It?, BusinessWorld Online: Peso strengthens further as Fed pauses rate hike cycle, Forbes: Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2026: Experts Predict Whether Interest Rates Will Drop, MONEY: Today's Current Mortgage Rates: October 29, 2026, Norada Real Estate Investments: Interest Rates Hike Odds for December 2026 Jump to 85% After Fed’s Recent Decision, MarketWatch: Did the Fed make a mistake with its October rate pause? The Treasury could help save the day., www.equiti.com: Fed rate decision October 2026: Is a December hike next?, IndexBox: Natixis: Fed to Hike Once More in December, Then Pause as Inflation Cools - News and Statistics, Lord, Abbett & Co LLC: October Fed Meeting: A Pause or a Pivot?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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16 Oct 2026
Fed Pause Expectations Rise Amid Market Analysis
The chance of the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes increased after recent analysis and news reports. Articles indicated that investors are betting on a pause in rate actions and that fears of an October rate hike have eased despite inflation risks.
Sources: CNBC: Analysis: Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh could surprise us all, Nikkei Asia: US yields fall as investors look for safety and bet on pause in rate hikes, Traders Union: Warsh eases fears of October Fed hike despite inflation risks
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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14 Oct 2026
US Inflation Surges, Boosting Federal Reserve Rate Hike Bets
Data released in October showed that US inflation accelerated in September, driven by rising gas prices and price pressures spreading beyond energy. This hotter-than-expected inflation report caused the US dollar to hit a one-year high and boosted bets that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates.
Sources: WLUK: Inflation surges as Iran war drives prices higher across economy, WRTV: Inflation accelerates to 3.7% in September as price pressures spread beyond energy, Axios: Inflation heats up as gas prices surge, NDTV Profit: US Dollar Hits One-Year High As Hot Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets, BBC: US inflation rises more than expected - here's what is happening with prices, Business Upturn: Fed may hike interest rates by 50 basis points in December as inflation fears hit Wall Street
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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13 Oct 2026
Fed October Rate Pause Debate Ahead of CPI Data
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve pause increased as market participants debated whether the upcoming Consumer Price Index report would disrupt pause plans for October. Articles highlighted that upcoming inflation data would determine the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's October rate decisions.
Sources: 富途牛牛: Can the Federal Reserve avoid a rate hike this month? CPI data to be released on Wednesday; core inflation of 0.3% could disrupt pause plans, Moomoo: September CPI Preview: The Print That Could Break the Fed's Pause, Forex Factory: Could Fed Pause in October Ahead of Midterm Elections?, Moomoo: If core CPI reaches 0.3%, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's October rate hike will be resolved., Bitget: US September CPI Preview: Energy Up, Core to Decide, Shanghai Metals Market: Gold price battles to break $4,200: US inflation to determine Fed rate pause
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Weak Jobs Report Boosts Fed Pause Odds
The chance of a Federal Reserve pause increased after a weak September jobs report showed the U.S. added only 29,000 jobs. Following this data, officials like Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signaled that policymakers may need more time to weigh their next move, reducing expectations of an October rate hike.
Sources: CoinGape: Fed’s Jefferson Signals October Rate Pause as Rate Hike Odds Fall, CNBC: Traders now see little chance of a Fed rate hike in October after weak jobs report, Bloomberg: Jefferson Says Fed May Need More Time to Weigh Next Move, Yahoo Finance: Fed Rate Hike in October Looks Less Likely After Weak Jobs Report, FXStreet: The October Fed hike just died. Here's what the 29K jobs report really means for rates, BeInCrypto: US Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September: Why Are Bitcoin and Gold Jumping?, Startup Fortune: Weak September Jobs Report Just Stalled the Fed's Hiking Cycle, Not Started a Cutting One, Financial Times: Weak US payrolls likely to keep rate setters on the sidelines in October, NPR: U.S. employers add only 29,000 jobs in September, much less than August, CNBC: Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 62%, which means they saw about a 62 in 100 chance. That was up 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 16 Oct 2026, from 40% to 56%: Fed Pause Expectations Rise Amid Market Analysis. The chance of the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes increased after recent analysis and news reports. Articles indicated that investors are betting on a pause in rate actions and that fears of an October rate hike have eased despite inflation risks. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 27 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm