Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
Yes at 1% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the lower bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will reach 2.5% or lower before the end of 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if either the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate hits the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, based on official Federal Reserve decisions.
Following recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady with the target range at 3.75% to 4%. Meanwhile, market commentary and forecasts indicate rising odds for potential rate hikes toward December 2026 rather than cuts down to 2.5%.
Sources: Admirals: Fed Rate Decision: Hawkish Hold at 3.75%-4% in 10-2 Vote, The Washington Post: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, 아시아경제: Fed Cuts Rate-Setting Meetings from 8 to 6... Holds Rates Steady Despite Strong Economy and High Inflation (2nd Update), Coin Gabbar: Fed Meeting Ends: Rates Unchanged and PCE Inflation Report Today, Norada Real Estate Investments: Interest Rates Hike Odds for December 2026 Jump to 85% After Fed’s Recent Decision
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.