Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Yes at 3% on 29 Oct 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds range will reach 2.75% or lower before 2027. The market resolves to \u201cYes\u201d if the rate hits this specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, based on official Federal Reserve decisions.
As of late October 2026, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 3.75%, following recent decisions overseen by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee. While the Fed recently paused rates after an increase, market participants and analysts are weighing the odds of future rate hikes or cuts as inflation and economic pressures continue.
Key factors influencing the outlook include upcoming FOMC meetings, economic data releases, and comments from Fed leadership regarding monetary policy. The market will resolve according to official data published by the Federal Reserve.
Sources: Fortune: The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady helps Warsh deny Tehran a say over monetary policy, Fortune: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s warning to AI investors: ‘Interest rates get in the cracks’, Norada Real Estate Investments: Interest Rates Hike Odds for December 2026 Jump to 85% After Fed’s Recent Decision, Logistics Management: Federal Reserve pauses federal funds rate after first increase in more than three years, shattered.io: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75 in 10-2 Vote [2026], Lord, Abbett & Co LLC: October Fed Meeting: A Pause or a Pivot?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Fed Holds Rates, Raising Inflation Risks
The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.75 in a 10-2 vote. Following this decision, a news report noted that by moving gradually, the Fed risks having to play catch-up in order to quell inflation.
Sources: shattered.io: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75 in 10-2 Vote [2026], The New York Times: In Moving Gradually, Fed Risks Having to Play Catch-Up to Quell Inflation
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 3%, which means they saw about a 3 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 2% to 15%: Fed Holds Rates, Raising Inflation Risks. The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.75 in a 10-2 vote. Following this decision, a news report noted that by moving gradually, the Fed risks having to play catch-up in order to quell inflation. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.