Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Yes at 7% on 29 Oct 2026, up 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether either the lower or upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will reach 3.0% or lower at any point before December 31, 2026. The market will resolve to "Yes" if official Federal Reserve data shows the target range reaches this level by the deadline, and "No" otherwise.
Recent reports indicate that the Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged during its October 2026 meeting. Meanwhile, economic data released in late October showed that inflation accelerated in September according to the Fed's preferred measure, while third-quarter economic growth exceeded expectations.
Following the recent rate decision and persistent inflation data, market speculation and rate hike odds for December 2026 have fluctuated, with some analyses pointing to rising auto finance and mortgage rates.
Sources: Car Dealership Guy News: Fed hold rates as auto finance rates continue rising, VOV World: US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, The New York Times: Inflation Accelerated in September, Fed’s Preferred Measure Shows, Equiti Global: Fed rate decision October 2026: Is a December hike next?, Norada Real Estate Investments: Interest Rates Hike Odds for December 2026 Jump to 85% After Fed’s Recent Decision, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: US economy grew more than expected in 3rd quarter, government data shows, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Mortgage rates fall for 2nd straight week but remain elevated
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Fed rate hike odds impact prediction market
Following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady, discussions regarding future rate hikes and economic conditions emerged. Articles published around this time highlighted rising odds for a December rate hike and ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy.
Sources: Equiti Global: Fed rate decision October 2026: Is a December hike next?, Norada Real Estate Investments: Interest Rates Hike Odds for December 2026 Jump to 85% After Fed’s Recent Decision, Mining.com.au: Gold price falls as PCE data fuels US rate hike bets
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 7%, which means they saw about a 7 in 100 chance. That was up 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 1% to 21%: Fed rate hike odds impact prediction market. Following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady, discussions regarding future rate hikes and economic conditions emerged. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.