Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes at 6% on 28 Oct 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall before 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if core structures like the office of the Supreme Leader or the IRGC lose sovereign power or are replaced by the end of December 2026, while routine political changes or partial unrest do not qualify.
Recent news highlights ongoing discussions about regional diplomacy, economic pressures, and security realignments involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Meanwhile, international commentators and officials are debating the potential trajectories of U.S. sanctions, economic collapse, and the geopolitical implications of a possible regime change.
Key factors and figures mentioned in recent reports include diplomatic talks in Tehran, statements from U.S. officials regarding Iran's economy and potential conflict, and strategic calculations involving leadership such as Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Sources: Jagonews24: Iran, Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan agree to continue talks for peace, The Friday Times: The Final Hours Of Peace: Iran War And The Political Calculations Of Trump And Netanyahu, Pakistan Today: Pakistan, Iran, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia agree to continue diplomatic talks for regional peace, World Israel News: WATCH: Bessent: Iran’s economy headed for collapse, The National: Middle East latest: US warns Gulf allies of possible renewal of Iran war, report says, SpecialEurasia: Tehran Talks, the Emerging Persian Gulf Security Realignments and Saudi Arabia’s Internal Stability, Middle East Forum: Iran Regime Change Could Split Iraq, The Free Press: A Peace Deal Will Allow the Iranian Regime to Survive
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 6%, which means they saw about a 6 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.