Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
Yes at 6% on 2 Nov 2026, down 3 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of 3% to 6%. The market resolves based on the official final percentage difference in valid votes received between the top two candidates.
As voters prepare to head to the polls on November 3, 2026, final polls show a competitive race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with recent reports highlighting Talarico holding leads in some final surveys.
The election takes place on November 3, 2026, with the market closing the following day. Key issues swaying voters include gas prices and other local factors leading into Election Day.
Sources: Click2Houston: Texas U.S. Senate election results: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico, USA Today: Final poll sets stage for Texas Senate race before Election Day, Community Impact Newspaper: Planning to vote in Texas on Tuesday, Nov. 3? Here's what to know before heading to the polls., Dallas News: Texas Senate race: Gas prices frustrate, but other issues sway voters, El Paso Times: Talarico posts best Texas US Senate race poll lead yet over Paxton, FOX 7 Austin: Talarico holds lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate race poll with Election Day just hours away
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Texas Senate Polls Show Tight Race
Recent polling data released ahead of Election Day indicated a tight contest in the Texas Senate race, highlighting challenges for the Republican candidate. These competitive poll results suggested the race could finish with a narrow margin of victory, aligning with the prediction market movement.
Sources: FOX 26 Houston: Talarico holds slim lead over Paxton in new poll as Election Day approaches, KHOU: New Texas poll reveals tight races for Senate, governor, USA Today: New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final days
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 6%, which means they saw about a 6 in 100 chance. That was down 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 9% to 22%: Texas Senate Polls Show Tight Race. Recent polling data released ahead of Election Day indicated a tight contest in the Texas Senate race, highlighting challenges for the Republican candidate. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.