Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Yes at 2% on 1 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Republican Party will hold between 220 and 224 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the official seat count for the upcoming 120th Congress, including any runoffs and independent members who caucus with the Republicans.
With the midterm elections just three days away, final forecasting models and poll analyses are being published. Recent rating updates show several races shifting toward Democrats, while final election forecasts from outlets like Silver Bulletin and Yahoo evaluate each party's chances of winning control.
Sources: Silver Bulletin: FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, Yahoo: The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say., The Times: Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions, Roll Call: Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans, NBC News: Midterms 2026: Congress Polls and More
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections”?
On 1 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.