Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 74% on 4 Nov 2026, up 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 4 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House seat for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official results from the Federal Election Commission.
As election results unfold following the November 3, 2026 voting date, early returns show a tight race between candidates in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District.
The key candidates involved in this closely watched district contest are Eli Crane and Jonathan Nez, as reported by local news outlets on November 4, 2026.
Sources: PBS: Live Arizona Results | Elections 2026, Arizona Daily Sun: Crane and Nez in tight race early on for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, KJZZ: Nez, Crane locked in tight race in Arizona’s CD2, KTAR News 92.3 FM: Rep. Eli Crane, Jonathan Nez neck and neck in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Tight Race in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
Early election results showed a tight race between Eli Crane and Jonathan Nez in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. Local news outlets reported on the close contest as vote counts continued following Election Day.
Sources: Arizona Daily Sun: Crane and Nez in tight race early on for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, KJZZ: Nez, Crane locked in tight race in Arizona’s CD2, KTAR News 92.3 FM: Arizona congressional district election results: Who won or is ahead in the 9 House races?, KJZZ: 2026 Arizona election results, KTAR News 92.3 FM: Rep. Eli Crane, Jonathan Nez neck and neck in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Republican Chances Drop in Arizona's 2nd District
The Republican probability of winning Arizona's 2nd Congressional District dropped sharply as early results showed a tight race between Crane and Nez. News reports during the early morning hours indicated that Crane and Nez were locked in a close contest.
Sources: Arizona Daily Sun: Crane and Nez in tight race early on for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, KJZZ: Nez, Crane locked in tight race in Arizona’s CD2
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “AZ-02 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 74%, which means they saw about a 74 in 100 chance. That was up 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 13% to 30%: Tight Race in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. Early election results showed a tight race between Eli Crane and Jonathan Nez in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. Local news outlets reported on the close contest as vote counts continued following Election Day. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).