Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?
Yes at 14% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 3 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party will win the congressional district seat for North Carolina's 11th District in the 2026 midterm elections. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official Federal Election Commission results.
As Election Day approaches on November 3, 2026, political attention in North Carolina focuses on various state and federal races, with prediction markets and traditional polls showing notable activity. Recent developments include political action committees canceling millions of dollars in TV advertisements for North Carolina races, while outlets continue to track the latest polling data for the 11th District.
Sources: ABC11 News: Midterm elections gambling: Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket draw attention to US Senate, other races in North Carolina, NC Newsline: Prediction markets diverge from traditional polls in NC races as Election Day nears, The New York Times: North Carolina 11th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls, The Hill: 2026 midterm elections: When polls close, when results are expected, WLOS: PACs cancel millions in TV ads for North Carolina races as Election Day approaches, NBC News: North Carolina Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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22 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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17 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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3 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Other markets in “NC-11 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 14%, which means they saw about a 14 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).